Modelling the relative abundance of the primary African vectors of malaria before and after the implementation of indoor, insecticide-based vector control.
Modelling the relative abundance of the primary African vectors of malaria before and after the implementation of indoor, insecticide-based vector control.
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DOI：
10.1186/s12936-016-1187-8
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发表时间：
2016-03-05
期刊：
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
Moyes CL
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Sinka ME;Golding N;Massey NC;Wiebe A;Huang Z;Hay SI;Moyes CL
疟疾仍然是撒哈拉以南非洲的一个沉重负担，在那里，世界上一些最有效的病媒维持着传播。基于室内杀虫剂的控制措施大大减少了传播，但消除仍然是一个遥远的目标。了解主要病媒物种的相对丰度，可以为传播模型提供急需的信息，以指导有针对性的控制措施。此外，了解现有的干预措施如何影响这些相对丰度突出了替代控制（例如，幼虫源管理）。使用预测物种分布模型结合文献整理的数据产生的栖息地适宜性概率，多项式广义加性模型，以产生相对丰度估计阿拉伯按蚊，不死按蚊和冈比亚按蚊/按蚊coluzzii。使用干预前和干预后的丰度数据，估计的影响，室内的杀虫剂为基础的干预措施对这些相对丰度进行了说明，并在干预后的地图。条件效应图和相对丰度图说明了各个物种的预测栖息地的适宜性，以及它们在同域分布时如何相互作用。阿拉伯按蚊（Anopheles arabiensis）和阿拉伯按蚊（An. funestus表现出在栖息地偏好的亲和力，在牺牲安。冈比亚/安coluzzii，而增加栖息地的适宜性，为一个。冈比亚/安相反，coluzzii不太适合An。arabiensis的作用，而对An. funestus。基于室内杀虫剂的干预措施对An的相对丰度产生了负面影响。funestus，和一个较小的影响安。阿拉伯的。室内滞留喷洒对土壤中An的相对丰度影响最大。funestus，和一个较小的影响安。冈比亚/安猫猴。经杀虫剂处理的蚊帐同样减少了两个物种的相对丰度。这些结果并不表明这些物种的绝对丰度发生了变化，所有物种的绝对丰度都可能减少。这里展示的地图突出了撒哈拉以南非洲主要病媒物种之间的相互作用，并表明An. funestus比An更容易受到某些室内杀虫剂干预。冈比亚/安coluzzii，反过来，比An更敏感。阿拉伯的。这可以提供一个。阿拉伯按蚊在与其他更嗜内性的病媒同域分布的地方具有竞争优势，并可能增加对户外病媒干预措施的需求，以处理阻碍消除疟疾的任何残余传播。本文的在线版本（doi：10.1186/s12936-016-1187-8）包含补充材料，可供授权用户使用。
Malaria remains a heavy burden across sub-Saharan Africa where transmission is maintained by some of the world’s most efficient vectors. Indoor insecticide-based control measures have significantly reduced transmission, yet elimination remains a distant target. Knowing the relative abundance of the primary vector species can provide transmission models with much needed information to guide targeted control measures. Moreover, understanding how existing interventions are impacting on these relative abundances highlights where alternative control (e.g., larval source management) is needed. Using the habitat suitability probabilities generated by predictive species distribution models combined with data collated from the literature, a multinomial generalized additive model was applied to produce relative abundance estimates for Anopheles arabiensis, Anopheles funestus and Anopheles gambiae/Anopheles coluzzii. Using pre- and post-intervention abundance data, estimates of the effect of indoor insecticide-based interventions on these relative abundances were made and are illustrated in post-intervention maps. Conditional effect plots and relative abundance maps illustrate the individual species’ predicted habitat suitability and how they interact when in sympatry. Anopheles arabiensis and An. funestus show an affinity in habitat preference at the expense of An. gambiae/An. coluzzii, whereas increasing habitat suitability for An. gambiae/An. coluzzii is conversely less suitable for An. arabiensis but has little effect on An. funestus. Indoor insecticide-based interventions had a negative impact on the relative abundance of An. funestus, and a lesser effect on An. arabiensis. Indoor residual spraying had the greatest impact on the relative abundance of An. funestus, and a lesser effect on An. gambiae/An. coluzzii. Insecticide-treated bed nets reduced the relative abundance of both species equally. These results do not indicate changes in the absolute abundance of these species, which may be reduced for all species overall. The maps presented here highlight the interactions between the primary vector species in sub-Saharan Africa and demonstrate that An. funestus is more susceptible to certain indoor-based insecticide interventions than An. gambiae/An. coluzzii, which in turn, is more susceptible than An. arabiensis. This may provide An. arabiensis with a competitive advantage where it is found in sympatry with other more endophilic vectors, and potentially increase the need for outdoor-based vector interventions to deal with any residual transmission barring the way to malaria elimination. The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-016-1187-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.