Is There a "Middle-income Trap"? Theories, Experiences and Relevance to China
Is There a "Middle-income Trap"? Theories, Experiences and Relevance to China
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1749-124x.2012.01272.x
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发表时间：
2012-01-01
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
Cai, Fang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cai, Fang
本文通过对相关研究的回顾和分析，认为中等收入陷阱是一个符合主流经济增长理论框架的概念，可以用来分析特定经济增长阶段的经济增长现象。许多国家的经验还表明，在特定的中等收入阶段，高增长率的经济体往往会遇到经济放缓甚至停滞。文章显示，中国面临的挑战是，如何在考虑到人口结构变化、资源禀赋和增长模式变化的同时，平稳跨越经济发展的中等收入阶段。文章借鉴国际经验，提出了提高全要素生产率、扩大人力资本积累、深化体制和政府职能改革的政策建议。
Through review of relevant studies and analysis, this article indicates that the middle-income trap is in line with the framework of the mainstream economic growth theories, and, therefore, it is a useful concept through which we can analyze economic growth phenomena in specific economic growth phases. The empirical experiences of many countries also indicate that at specific middle-income stages, economies with high rates of growth tend to encounter economic slowdown or even stagnation. The article shows that China is facing the challenge of determining how to move smoothly beyond the middle-income stage of economic development, while taking into account the shifting population structure, changing resource endowment and growth patterns. The article, drawing on international experiences, puts forward several policy suggestions relating to improvement in total factor productivity, expansion of human capital accumulation and deepening of system and government function reforms.