Incorporating Satisfaction into Customer Value Analysis: Optimal Investment in Lifetime Value
Incorporating Satisfaction into Customer Value Analysis: Optimal Investment in Lifetime Value
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DOI：
10.1287/mksc.1050.0158
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发表时间：
2006-05
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Teck-Hua Ho;Young-Hoon Park;Yong-Pin Zhou
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文献类型：
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作者：
Teck-Hua Ho;Young-Hoon Park;Yong-Pin Zhou
我们将Schmittlein等人的S(1987)顾客终生价值模型扩展到包括满意度。客户购买被建模为泊松事件，其发生率取决于最近一次购买的满意度。顾客满意时的购买率高于不满意时的购买率。推导出一个封闭形式的公式，用于预测一个客户群在一段时间内(0；T]的总预期美元支出。这个公式表明，用单一的聚合泊松过程来近似混合到达过程可能会系统性地低估购买的总数量和收入。有趣的是，总营收正在增长，而且令人满意。如果成本是足够凸的，我们的模型揭示了聚合模型导致了对客户满意度的过度投资。该模型进一步扩展到包括客户满意的其他三个好处：(1)满意的客户可能比不满意的客户在每次旅行中花费更多；(2)满意的客户比不满意的客户更不可能离开客户群；以及(3)以前满意的客户比以前不满意的客户在本次访问中更有可能(或更少)感到满意。我们证明了所有的主要结果都适用于这些一般设置。
We extend Schmittlein et al.'s model (1987) of customer lifetime value to include satisfaction. Customer purchases are modeled as Poisson events and their rates of occurrence depend on the satisfaction of the most recent purchase encounter. Customers purchase at a higher rate when they are satisfied than when they are dissatisfied. A closed-form formula is derived for predicting total expected dollar spending from a customer base over a time period (0; T]. This formula reveals that approximating the mixture arrival processes by a single aggregate Poisson process can systematically under-estimate the total number of purchases and revenue. Interestingly, the total revenue is increasing and convex in satisfaction. If the cost is sufficiently convex, our model reveals that the aggregate model leads to an over-investment in customer satisfaction. The model is further extended to include three other benefits of customer satisfaction: (1) satisfied customers are likely to spend more per trip on average than dissatisfied customers; (2) satisfied customers are less likely to leave the customer base than dissatisfied customers; and (3) previously satisfied customers can be more (or less) likely to be satisfied in the current visit than previously dissatisfied customers. We show that all the main results carry through to these general settings.