Ageing populations: the challenges ahead.
Ageing populations: the challenges ahead.
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DOI：
10.1016/s0140-6736(09)61460-4
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发表时间：
2009-10-03
期刊：
影响因子：
168.9
通讯作者：
Vaupel, James W.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Christensen, Kaare;Doblhammer, Gabriele;Rau, Roland;Vaupel, James W.
如果发达国家在过去两个世纪中预期寿命的增长速度持续到21世纪，那么自2000年以来在法国、德国、意大利、英国、美国、加拿大、日本和其他预期寿命较长的国家出生的大多数婴儿将庆祝他们的100岁生日。尽管各国的趋势不同，但由于生育率低、移民少和寿命长，几乎所有这些国家的人口都在老龄化。一个关键问题是：预期寿命的增加是否伴随着功能限制和残疾的同时推迟？答案仍然是开放的，但研究表明，衰老过程是可以改变的，人们没有严重残疾的寿命更长。这一发现，再加上技术和医疗的发展以及工作的重新分配，对于我们迎接人口老龄化挑战的机会将是重要的。
If the pace of increase in life expectancy in developed countries over the past two centuries continues through the 21st century, most babies born since 2000 in France, Germany, Italy, the UK, the USA, Canada, Japan, and other countries with long life expectancies will celebrate their 100th birthdays. Although trends differ between countries, populations of nearly all such countries are ageing as a result of low fertility, low immigration, and long lives. A key question is: are increases in life expectancy accompanied by a concurrent postponement of functional limitations and disability? The answer is still open, but research suggests that ageing processes are modifiable and that people are living longer without severe disability. This finding, together with technological and medical development and redistribution of work, will be important for our chances to meet the challenges of ageing populations.