Mesoscale refugia for European alpine grasslands based on climatic envelopes
Mesoscale refugia for European alpine grasslands based on climatic envelopes
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DOI：
10.1007/s00035-022-00283-0
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发表时间：
2022-05
期刊：
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
G. Malanson;R. Testolin;Elizabeth R. Pansing;B. Jiménez‐Alfaro
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
G. Malanson;R. Testolin;Elizabeth R. Pansing;B. Jiménez‐Alfaro
避难所对高山植被对气候变化的响应具有重要意义。潜在的避难所存在于多个尺度，包括范围广泛的中尺度。对欧洲南部和中部23个山脉的高山草原气候进行了评估，以评估每个山脉在预测的未来气候中是否支持潜在的避难所。从分辨率约为1公里的网格化全球气候数据中得出的最热月份和季度的平均温度以及最热季度的降水量，在全范围内进行了检查，并确定了高山草原地区，以确定每个范围内的界限。当前草原气候和未来范围内气候的重叠（后者是使用三个全球模型的区域预测和三个社会经济驱动情景计算出来的）被评估为潜在的避难所。在九个预测中，有三个预测到2100年在23个范围中的任何一个范围内都没有当前的草原气候，而两个预测在一半以上的范围内保持了20%以上。大多数潜在的中型避难所都在阿尔卑斯山。微避难所和温暖和干燥的基本气候生态位的高山草原物种可以减轻这些暗淡的结果，但否则他们是非常受威胁的。
Refugia will be important to the response of alpine vegetation to climate change. Potential refugia exist at multiple scales, including a range-wide mesoscale. The climates of alpine grasslands of 23 mountain ranges of southern and central Europe were evaluated to assess whether each range would support potential refugia in projected future climates. The mean temperature the warmest month and quarter with the precipitation of the warmest quarter, derived from gridded global climate data at ~ 1 km resolution, were examined range-wide and for areas identified as alpine grassland to identify limits within each range. The overlap of current grassland climate and future range-wide climates, the latter calculated using regional projections from three global models with three socioeconomic driving scenarios, were assessed as potential refugia. Among the nine projections, three had none of the current grassland climates in any of the 23 ranges by 2100, while two retained more than 20% in more than half of the ranges. Most of the potential mesoscale refugia were in the Alps. Micro-refugia and warmer and drier fundamental climatic niches for alpine grassland species could mitigate these bleak results, but otherwise they are extremely threatened.