A competing risk nomogram for predicting cancer-specific death of patients with buccal mucosa cancer
A competing risk nomogram for predicting cancer-specific death of patients with buccal mucosa cancer
复制标题
用于预测颊粘膜癌患者癌症特异性死亡的竞争风险列线图
DOI：
10.1111/odi.13609
复制
发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Qiu Jiaxuan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jiang Qingkun;Xue Danfeng;Xin Yuqi;Qiu Jiaxuan
ObjectivesOur aim is to develop and validate a competitive risk nomogram to determine the probability of cancer-specific death in buccal mucosa cancer（BMC）patients.Materials and MethodsWe investigated the records of BMC patients in the Surveillance，Epidemiology，and End Results（SEER）Program and First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University（China）.我们采用累积发生率函数和基于R软件的单变量和多变量分析的Fine-Gray比例风险模型来识别与癌症特异性死亡相关的风险因素。随后，诺模图的开发和验证，以预测3和5年的癌症特异性death.ResultsIn 1,286例BMC患者从SEER数据库中确定，诊断后的癌症特异性死亡的累积发生率分别为33.4%和35.5%，分别为3年和5年。在来自SEER数据库的训练队列（n= 902）中，Fine-Gray模型表明年龄、肿瘤淋巴结转移（TNM）分期、分级、手术和组织学类型是与癌症特异性死亡相关的独立风险因素，基于此开发了预后诺模图。在SEER数据库的内部验证队列（n= 384）和本医学中心的外部验证队列（n= 174）中，诺模图得到了很好的校准，并显示出显著的预测性能。结论本文所创建的诺模图可以被证明是一个很好的辅助工具，用于评估BMC患者的预后。
ObjectivesOur aim was to develop and validate a competing risk nomogram to determine the probability of cancer‐specific death in buccal mucosa cancer (BMC) patients.Materials and MethodsWe examined the records of BMC patients in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program and First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University (China). We adopted the cumulative incidence function and Fine–Gray proportional hazards model based on univariate and multivariate analyses by R‐software to identify the risk factors associated with cancer‐specific death. Subsequently, a nomogram was developed and validated to predict the 3‐ and 5‐year probability of cancer‐specific death.ResultsIn 1,286 BMC patients identified from SEER database, cumulative incidences of cancer‐specific death after diagnosis were 33.4% and 35.5% for 3 and 5 years, respectively. In the training cohort (n= 902) from SEER database, the Fine–Gray model indicated that age, Tumor Node Metastasis (TNM) stages, grade, surgery, and histological type were independent risk factors associated with cancer‐specific death, based on which a prognostic nomogram was developed. In the internal validation cohort from SEER database (n= 384) and the external validation cohort from our medical center (n= 174), the nomogram was well calibrated and showed remarkable prediction performance.ConclusionThe nomogram created herein may prove to be a good assistant tool for assessing the prognosis of BMC patients.