Classifying global catastrophic risks
Classifying global catastrophic risks
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DOI：
10.1016/j.futures.2018.02.001
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发表时间：
2018-09-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
Rees, Martin J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Avin, Shahar;Wintle, Bonnie C.;Rees, Martin J.
我们提出了一种新的全球严重灾难性风险情景分类框架。在现有识别单个风险情景的工作基础上，我们建议从三个方面分析全球灾难性风险：受影响的关键系统、全球传播机制以及预防和缓解失败。分类突出了风险情景之间的趋同领域，这支持了特定研究和政策干预的优先次序。它还指出了关于灾难性风险的潜在知识差距，并提供了一个跨学科结构，用于绘制和跟踪可能导致全球灾难性风险的众多因素。
We present a novel classification framework for severe global catastrophic risk scenarios. Extending beyond existing work that identifies individual risk scenarios, we propose analysing global catastrophic risks along three dimensions: the critical systems affected, global spread mechanisms, and prevention and mitigation failures. The classification highlights areas of convergence between risk scenarios, which supports prioritisation of particular research and of policy interventions. It also points to potential knowledge gaps regarding catastrophic risks, and provides an interdisciplinary structure for mapping and tracking the multitude of factors that could contribute to global catastrophic risks.