Vulnerability of grain crops and croplands in the Midwest to climatic variability and adaptation strategies
Vulnerability of grain crops and croplands in the Midwest to climatic variability and adaptation strategies
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-017-1997-x
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发表时间：
2018-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Hall, Beth
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hatfield, J. L.;Wright-Morton, Lois;Hall, Beth
玉米(Zea Mays L.)和大豆(Glyine max(L.)(Merr.)是中西部的主要粮食作物，种植在75%的耕地上，种植的小麦(Triticum aestivum L.)虽小，但具有重要的经济价值。燕麦(Avena sativa L.)而是重要的经济作物。从历史上看，玉米和大豆的年产量与季节性天气模式有关。主要关注的是未来气候变化对玉米和大豆生产的影响及其对未来气候变化的脆弱性。为了评估这些产量，我们分析了产量差距，即县级可获得产量和实际产量与观测气象数据之间的差异，以确定哪些季节气象变量在量化实际/可获得产量方面起主导作用。7月最高气温、8月最低气温和7-8月总降水量是影响产量差距的重要因素。这些关系被用来估计中西部选定县的这些变量的RCP 4.5和8.5气候情景下到2100年的产量差距变化。整个中西部玉米的产量差距随着时间的推移而扩大，其中玉米带南部的增幅最大，表现出产量差距增加的南北梯度较大，东西梯度最小。大豆不像玉米那样敏感，因为预计的温度不会超过生长和减产的最佳温度范围，而这些温度范围对生殖阶段的降水变化更为敏感。玉米和大豆的适应战略将需要比简单的农艺管理更多的创新，并需要遗传学家、农学家和农业气象学家之间的联系，以制定创新战略来保护中西部的生产。
Maize (Zea mays L.) and soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merr.) are the dominant grain crops across the Midwest and are grown on 75% of the arable land with small but economically important crops of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and oats (Avena sativa L.) but economically important crops. Historically, there have been variations in annual yields for maize and soybean related to the seasonal weather patterns. Key concerns are the impacts of future climate change on maize and soybean production and their vulnerability to future climate changes. To evaluate these, we analyzed the yield gaps as the difference between the attainable and actual yield at the county level and observed meteorological data to determine which seasonal meteorological variables were dominant in quantifying the actual/attainable yields. July maximum temperatures, August minimum temperatures, and July-August total precipitation were found to be the significant factors affecting the yield gap. These relationships were used to estimate the change in the yield gap through 2100 using both the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate scenarios for these variables for selected counties across the Midwest. Yield gaps increased with time for maize across the Midwest with the largest increases in the southern portion of the Corn Belt showing a large north-south gradient in the increase of the yield gap and minimal east-west gradient. Soybean was not as sensitive as maize because the projected temperatures do not exceed optimum temperature ranges for growth and reductions in production that are more sensitive to precipitation changes during the reproductive stages. Adaptation strategies for maize and soybean will require more innovation than simple agronomic management and require the linkage between geneticists, agronomists, and agricultural meteorologists to develop innovative strategies to preserve production in the Midwest.