Forecasts of Petroleum Demand
Forecasts of Petroleum Demand
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石油需求预测
DOI：
10.3846/16484142.2007.9638088
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发表时间：
2007
期刊：
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
Jonas Kugelevičius
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jonas Algirdas Kugelevičius;A. Kuprys;Jonas Kugelevičius
分析了立陶宛石油产品的消费趋势。结果表明，在向市场经济过渡期间，这些趋势并不稳定。为此，提出了石油产品消费趋势统计建模的比较分析方法和模型，对转型经济体和欧共体15个发达市场国家石油产品消费的相关指标进行了比较分析。立陶宛2010-2025年石油产品消费量的长期预测是根据统计模型的前景情景计算的。预测石油产品的最终消费以及汽车燃料的需求。
Abstract Trends of consumption of petroleum products in Lithuania are analyzed. It is shown that these trends during the transition period to the market economy are not stable. Therefore, methods and models of the comparative analysis are proposed for the statistical modelling trends of consumption of petroleum products, comparing the relative indicators of consumption of petroleum products in transition economy and in the European Community of 15 EU developed market countries. Long‐term forecasts of consumption of petroleum products in Lithuania for the perspective of 2010–2025 were calculated on the basis of perspective scenarios of statistical models. Forecasts of final consumption of petroleum products as well as automotive fuel demands are presented.