Understanding Interdependent Climate Change Risks Using a Serious Game
Understanding Interdependent Climate Change Risks Using a Serious Game
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通过严肃的游戏了解相互依存的气候变化风险
DOI：
10.1175/bams-d-19-0177.1
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发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
8
通讯作者：
Undorf S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Undorf S
人为气候变化要求迅速大幅减少二氧化碳和其他温室气体的排放，以减轻未来的影响。然而，即使有了这些，在未来20-30年里，除了已经观察到的变化之外，还将继续发生许多变化。适应是至关重要和紧迫的，但确定战略是复杂的，需要利益攸关方之间的对话与合作，特别是对于表现出相互依赖风险的基础设施，一种类型的失败可能会影响到其他类型。与基础设施运营商合作开发了一款严肃的游戏，向他们传达气候预测和气候危害；确定潜在的相互依赖关系、级联影响、累积效应和脆弱性热点；让他们参与进来，以改善合作，并对跨领域的气候风险和相互依存关系达成共识。在游戏中，玩家在苏格兰因弗克莱德地区提供现代基础设施服务，因为他们经历了2050年的十年，其特征是一系列危险事件。这个序列是从气候模式预估中提取的，以确保科学上的合理性。基础设施运营商负责饮用水和天然气供应、公路和铁路运输、废水处理和民用基础设施。参与游戏的英国基础设施供应商认为，尽管存在挑战，但他们可以应对2050年的气候变化。预计这些灾害事件都不会对基础设施造成灾难性的连锁影响。该游戏受到了积极的欢迎，研究表明，它是一个有用的工具，既可以传达气候危害，又可以通过将利益相关者的个人专业知识以一种引人入胜的方式汇集在一起，探索潜在的相互依赖的风险。
Anthropogenic climate change calls for rapid and enormous cuts in emissions of CO2and other greenhouse gases to mitigate future impacts. Even with these, however, many changes will continue to occur over the next 20–30 years adding to those already observed. Adaptation is crucial and urgent, but identifying strategies is complex and requires dialogue and cooperation among stakeholders, especially for infrastructure that exhibits interdependent risks in that failure in one type may impact others. A serious game was codeveloped with infrastructure operators to communicate climate projections and climate hazards to them; identify potential interdependencies, cascading impacts, cumulative effects, and vulnerability hot spots; and engage them to improve cooperation and enable a shared understanding of cross-cutting climate risks and interdependencies. In the game, players provide present-day infrastructure services in the Inverclyde district, Scotland, as they experience a plausible decade of 2050s weather characterized by a sequence of hazard events. This sequence was extracted from climate model projections to ensure scientific plausibility. The infrastructure operators were responsible for drinking water and gas supplies, road and rail transport, wastewater treatment, and civil infrastructure. When playing the game the participating U.K. infrastructure providers felt that although there were challenges, they could cope with 2050s climate change. None of the projected hazard events were anticipated to cause catastrophic impact cascades on infrastructure. The game was positively received, and the study suggests it is a useful tool to both communicate climate hazards and explore potential interdependent risks by bringing together stakeholders’ individual expertise in an engaging way.