Case‐to‐case variability of predictability of deep convection in a mesoscale model
Case‐to‐case variability of predictability of deep convection in a mesoscale model
复制标题
中尺度模型中深层对流可预测性的个案变异性
DOI：
10.1002/qj.943
复制
发表时间：
2012
影响因子：
8.9
通讯作者：
Peter Clark
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Done;J. Done;George C. Craig;George C. Craig;S. Gray;Peter Clark;Peter Clark
在对流不稳定条件下，成功的定量降水预报取决于模式捕捉对流的位置、时间和强度的能力。在英国的两个中尺度对流爆发的包围预报检查，以了解其可预测性的性质和程度。除了一个控制预报，12个合奏成员运行的每一种情况下具有相同的边界条件，但与扰动添加到边界层。目的是引入适当大小和规模的扰动，以便模拟的大规模行为不会改变。在一种情况下，对流与大尺度流处于统计平衡。这限制了总降水量，但个别风暴的位置和强度各不相同。相比之下，另一种情况的特征是大规模的封盖倒置。因此，个别风暴的位置是固定的，但它们的强度和总降水量变化很大。该集合显示了中尺度模式中对流可预报性性质的逐例变化，并为定量降水预报提供了额外的有用信息。版权所有© 2011皇家气象学会和英国皇家气象局版权所有
Successful quantitative precipitation forecasts under convectively unstable conditions depend on the ability of the model to capture the location, timing and intensity of convection. Ensemble forecasts of two mesoscale convective outbreaks over the UK are examined with a view to understanding the nature and extent of their predictability. In addition to a control forecast, twelve ensemble members are run for each case with the same boundary conditions but with perturbations added to the boundary layer. The intention is to introduce perturbations of appropriate magnitude and scale so that the large‐scale behaviour of the simulations is not changed. In one case, convection is in statistical equilibrium with the large‐scale flow. This places a constraint on the total precipitation, but the location and intensity of individual storms varied. In contrast, the other case was characterised by a large‐scale capping inversion. As a result, the location of individual storms was fixed, but their intensities and the total precipitation varied strongly. The ensemble shows case‐to‐case variability in the nature of predictability of convection in a mesoscale model, and provides additional useful information for quantitative precipitation forecasting. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society and British Crown Copyright, the Met Office
影响因子：
8.9
作者：
Giovanni Leoncini;R. Plant;S. Gray;P. Clark
通讯作者：
Giovanni Leoncini;R. Plant;S. Gray;P. Clark
影响因子：
3.1
作者：
R. Plant;G. Craig
通讯作者：
R. Plant;G. Craig