A Principal Components Approach to Estimating Labor Market Pressure and its Implications for Inflation
A Principal Components Approach to Estimating Labor Market Pressure and its Implications for Inflation
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估计劳动力市场压力及其对通胀影响的主成分法
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.1084914
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发表时间：
2007
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Jenny Tang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Barnes;R. Chahrour;Giovanni P. Olivei;Jenny Tang
我们建立了一个劳动力市场压力的概括衡量标准，它捕捉了各种劳动力市场系列之间的共同运动。作为劳动力市场系列的第一个主成分，该指标解释了基础系列的大部分可变性。因此，它是劳动力市场压力的一个很好的总结指标。我们发现，在过去的35年里，失业率差距一直密切跟踪这一汇总指标。然而，有时候，综合衡量标准和失业率差距发出的信号有些不同。在依赖于主成分汇总措施相对于失业率缺口来解释通货膨胀方面，我们认为，工资通胀的近期演变与汇总措施的演变比与失业率缺口更一致。这是因为在过去两年中，主成分汇总指标一直表明劳动力市场压力小于失业率缺口。然而，在过去的35年里，几乎没有系统的证据支持劳动力市场压力的综合衡量标准，而不是失业率差距作为通货膨胀的预测指标。
We build a summary measure of labor market pressure that captures the common movement among a variety of labor market series. Obtained as the labor market series’ first principal component, this measure explains a large portion of the variability of the underlying series. For this reason, it is a good summary indicator of labor market pressure. We show that the unemployment rate gap has tracked this summary measure closely over the past 35 years. At times, however, the summary measure and the unemployment rate gap have sent somewhat different signals. In terms of relying on the principal components summary measure vis-a-vis the unemployment rate gap for explaining inflation, we argue that the recent evolution of wage inflation is more consistent with the evolution of the summary measure than with the unemployment rate gap. This is because over the past two years the principal components summary measure has been suggesting less labor market pressure than the unemployment rate gap. Over the past 35 years, however, there is little systematic evidence favoring the summary measure of labor market pressure over the unemployment rate gap as a predictor of inflation.