The Role of Influenza in the Delay between Low Temperature and Ischemic Heart Disease: Evidence from Simulation and Mortality Data from Japan.
The Role of Influenza in the Delay between Low Temperature and Ischemic Heart Disease: Evidence from Simulation and Mortality Data from Japan.
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DOI：
10.3390/ijerph13050454
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发表时间：
2016-04-28
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Honda Y
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Imai C;Barnett AG;Hashizume M;Honda Y
许多研究发现，心血管死亡大多发生在暴露于热的几天内，而与冷有关的死亡可能发生在暴露后长达30天。我们研究了流感感染是否可以解释延迟冷缺血性心脏病（IHD）的影响，因为他们可以触发IHD。我们假设冷暴露和IHD之间有两种途径：直接途径和通过流感感染的间接途径。我们创建了一个多状态模型的途径和模拟的发病率数据，以检查观察到的延迟模式的情况下。我们对日本每日肺炎和流感（P&I）死亡率数据进行了交叉相关和时间序列分析，以帮助验证我们的模型。模拟结果显示，通过直接途径的IHD发病大多发生在10天内，而通过流感感染的IHD在4-6天达到高峰，随后延迟发病长达20-30天。在来自日本的死亡率数据中，P&I在交叉相关性方面落后于IHD。时间序列分析显示，在老年人群中有强烈的延迟冷效应。在流感高发日也有明显的延迟，这在老年人群中更为明显。因此，流感可能是寒冷暴露和心血管死亡率之间延迟相关性的合理解释。
Many studies have found that cardiovascular deaths mostly occur within a few days of exposure to heat, whereas cold-related deaths can occur up to 30 days after exposure. We investigated whether influenza infection could explain the delayed cold effects on ischemic heart diseases (IHD) as they can trigger IHD. We hypothesized two pathways between cold exposure and IHD: a direct pathway and an indirect pathway through influenza infection. We created a multi-state model of the pathways and simulated incidence data to examine the observed delayed patterns in cases. We conducted cross-correlation and time series analysis with Japanese daily pneumonia and influenza (P&I) mortality data to help validate our model. Simulations showed the IHD incidence through the direct pathway occurred mostly within 10 days, while IHD through influenza infection peaked at 4–6 days, followed by delayed incidences of up to 20–30 days. In the mortality data from Japan, P&I lagged IHD in cross-correlations. Time series analysis showed strong delayed cold effects in the older population. There was also a strong delay on intense days of influenza which was more noticeable in the older population. Influenza can therefore be a plausible explanation for the delayed association between cold exposure and cardiovascular mortality.