Risk of internal cancers from arsenic in drinking water
Risk of internal cancers from arsenic in drinking water
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DOI：
10.2307/3434887
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发表时间：
2000-07-01
影响因子：
10.4
通讯作者：
Chen, CJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Morales, KH;Ryan, L;Chen, CJ
美国环境保护署在国会的授权下，修改了目前饮用水中砷的标准。我们以台湾砷中毒流行地区42个村落的资料为基础，提出暴露于水中砷对膀胱癌、肝癌和肺癌的风险评估。我们计算了广义线性模型和多阶段-威布尔模型的几种变种的超额寿命风险估计。风险估计对模型的选择、是否使用比较人口来定义未暴露的疾病死亡率、以及比较人口是整个台湾还是仅在西南部地区都很敏感。一些可能影响风险的因素无法定量评估：数据的生态性质、研究人群的营养状况以及饮食中砷的摄入量。然而，尽管存在所有这些不确定因素，我们的分析表明，目前50微克/L的标准与癌症风险的大幅增加有关，而且对公共健康没有足够的保护。
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is under a congressional mandate to revise its current standard for arsenic in drinking water. We present a risk assessment for cancers of the bladder, liver, and lung from exposure to arsenic in water, based on data from 42 villages in an arseniasis-endemic region of Taiwan. We calculate excess lifetime risk estimates for several variations of the generalized linear model and for the multistage-Weibull model. Risk estimates are sensitive to the model choice, to whether or not a comparison population is used to define the unexposed disease mortality rates, and to whether the comparison population is all of Taiwan or just the southwestern region. Some factors that may affect risk could not be evaluated quantitatively: the ecologic nature of the data, the nutritional status of the study population, and the dietary intake of arsenic. Despite all of these sources of uncertainty, however, our analysis suggests that the current standard of 50 mu g/L is associated with a substantial increased risk of cancer and is not sufficiently protective of public health.