Evaluation of energy saving potential in China's cement industry using the Asian-Pacific Integrated Model and the technology promotion policy analysis
Evaluation of energy saving potential in China's cement industry using the Asian-Pacific Integrated Model and the technology promotion policy analysis
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DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2014.11.030
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发表时间：
2015-02
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Zongguo Wen;Min Chen;Fanxin Meng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zongguo Wen;Min Chen;Fanxin Meng
中国所在的水泥行业有很大一部分仍然使用过时的窑炉和其他低效技术，这些都是提高能效的障碍。通过改进这项技术，可以极大地提高能源消耗强度。为了评价中国所在水泥行业2010-2020年的节能减排潜力，基于亚太一体化模型(AIM)建立了一个模型。制定了三个方案(S1、S2和S3)，以描述与水泥工业发展有关的未来技术政策措施。结果表明，情景S3将实现二氧化碳减排潜力361.0吨，占预测排放量的25.24%，到2020年新增节能潜力3900万吨煤当量。技术推广和产业结构调整是节能降耗的主要措施。结构调整是减少水泥行业二氧化碳排放的最重要途径，由此产生的二氧化碳减排潜力将越来越大，2016年后甚至超过50%。
Much of China's cement industry still uses outdated kilns and other inefficient technologies, which are obstacles to improving energy efficiency. Huge improvements in energy consumption intensity can be made by improving this technology. To evaluate the potential for energy-saving and CO2emissions reduction in China's cement industry between 2010 and 2020, a model was developed based on the Asian-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM). Three scenarios (S1, S2 and S3) were developed to describe future technology policy measures in relation to the development of the cement industry. Results show that scenario S3 would realize the potential for CO2emissions mitigation of 361.0 million tons, accounting for 25.24% of the predicted emissions, with an additional energy saving potential of 39.0 million tons of coal equivalent by 2020. Technology promotion and industrial structure adjustment are the main measures that can lead to energy savings. Structural adjustment is the most important approach to reduce the CO2emissions from the cement industry; the resulting potential for CO2emissions reduction will be increasingly large, even exceeding 50% after 2016.