High chance that current atmospheric greenhouse concentrations commit to warmings greater than 1.5 °C over land.
High chance that current atmospheric greenhouse concentrations commit to warmings greater than 1.5 °C over land.
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DOI：
10.1038/srep30294
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发表时间：
2016-07-27
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Mercado LM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Huntingford C;Mercado LM
最近在巴黎举行的《联合国气候变化框架公约》（UNFCCC）气候会议讨论了将全球变暖限制在前工业化时代2°C，甚至1.5°C的可能性，这将要求未来大幅减排。然而，即使气候稳定在目前的大气温室气体（GHG）浓度，仅在陆地平均温度上升的情况下，这些变暖目标几乎肯定会被超越。原因有两方面。首先，当前的短暂变暖明显滞后于平衡或“持续”变暖。其次，几乎所有的气候模型都表明，陆地的变暖速度远远高于海洋。我们利用一套已知气候敏感性的大型气候模型，论证了陆地上最终出现高温的可能性，即使是在当代温室气体水平下也是如此。这种额外的陆地变暖会对陆地生态系统和人类福祉产生影响。这表明，即使发生大规模和近乎立即的减排，使大气中温室气体仅进一步增加少量，社会也需要仔细规划，为最终平衡的气候状态下更高的陆地温度做好准备。
The recent Paris UNFCCC climate meeting discussed the possibility of limiting global warming to 2 °C since pre-industrial times, or possibly even 1.5 °C, which would require major future emissions reductions. However, even if climate is stabilised at current atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, those warming targets would almost certainly be surpassed in the context of mean temperature increases over land only. The reason for this is two-fold. First, current transient warming lags significantly below equilibrium or “committed” warming. Second, almost all climate models indicate warming rates over land are much higher than those for the oceans. We demonstrate this potential for high eventual temperatures over land, even for contemporary GHG levels, using a large set of climate models and for which climate sensitivities are known. Such additional land warming has implications for impacts on terrestrial ecosystems and human well-being. This suggests that even if massive and near-immediate emissions reductions occur such that atmospheric GHGs increase further by only small amounts, careful planning is needed by society to prepare for higher land temperatures in an eventual equilibrium climatic state.