Rent affordability after hurricanes: Longitudinal evidence from US coastal states
Rent affordability after hurricanes: Longitudinal evidence from US coastal states
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飓风后的租金承受能力：来自美国沿海各州的纵向证据
DOI：
10.1111/risa.14224
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发表时间：
2023
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Niemeier, Deb
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Best, Kelsea B.;He, Qian;Reilly, Allison;Tran, Nhi;Niemeier, Deb
气候变化预计将增加飓风等自然灾害的频率和强度。由于美国经济适用房严重短缺，由于危险暴露增加、结构的物理脆弱性和社会经济劣势，租房者可能特别容易受到与灾害相关的住房中断的影响。在这项工作中，我们构建了一个面板数据集，其中包含 2009 年至 2018 年美国东部和墨西哥湾沿岸 19 个州各县的住房、社会经济和飓风灾害数据，以研究飓风的频率和强度如何与中位租金和住房负担能力（租金价格与收入之间的相互作用）随时间的变化相对应。使用两阶段最小二乘随机效应回归模型，我们发现前一年更强烈的飓风对应于住房供应量下降导致的中位租金上涨。飓风与租金承受能力之间的关系更为复杂，尽管某一年或前一年发生飓风会减少经济适用房的数量，特别是对于租房者和有色人种比例较高的县。我们的结果强调了飓风过后租房者可能面临的多重挑战，我们强调中短期灾难恢复应侧重于提供安全、稳定和负担得起的租赁住房援助。
Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of natural hazards such as hurricanes. With a severe shortage of affordable housing in the United States, renters may be uniquely vulnerable to disaster‐related housing disruptions due to increased hazard exposure, physical vulnerability of structures, and socioeconomic disadvantage. In this work, we construct a panel dataset consisting of housing, socioeconomic, and hurricane disaster data from counties in 19 states across the East and Gulf Coasts of the United States from 2009 to 2018 to investigate how the frequency and intensity of a hurricane correspond to changes in median rent and housing affordability (the interaction between rent prices and income) over time. Using a two‐stage least square random‐effects regression model, we find that more intense prior‐year hurricanes correspond to increases in median rents via declines in housing availability. The relationship between hurricanes and rent affordability is more complex, though the occurrence of a hurricane in a given year or the previous year reduces affordable rental housing, especially for counties with higher percentages of renters and people of color. Our results highlight the multiple challenges that renters are likely to face following a hurricane, and we emphasize that disaster recovery in short‐ and medium‐term should focus on providing safe, stable, and affordable rental housing assistance.