Simple Risk Score for the Assessment of Absolute Fracture Risk in General Practice Based on Two Longitudinal Studies
Simple Risk Score for the Assessment of Absolute Fracture Risk in General Practice Based on Two Longitudinal Studies
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DOI：
10.1359/jbmr.081244
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发表时间：
2009-05-01
影响因子：
6.2
通讯作者：
Steyerberg, Ewout W.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Pluijm, Saskia M. F.;Koes, Bart;Steyerberg, Ewout W.
这项前瞻性研究的目的是根据目前指南中假定的风险因素制定一个风险评分，该评分可用于在一般实践中识别骨折高危女性。研究样本包括4157名年龄≥ 60岁的女性（平均值+/- SD：74.1 +/- 9.1年），鹿特丹研究（ERGO）中位随访时间为8.9年，762名年龄≥ 65岁的女性（平均值+/- SD：76.0 +/-6.7年），阿姆斯特丹纵向老化研究（LASA）的中位随访时间为6.0年。潜在的危险因素是最近三个骨质疏松症指南的风险评分中提出的：年龄、骨折家族史、既往骨折、低体重/体重指数（BMI）、严重不动、类风湿性关节炎、目前吸烟、每日饮酒>2个单位、普遍的椎骨骨折和全身性皮质类固醇使用。鹿特丹研究中5年髋部骨折的绝对风险为3.9%，LASA为3.1%，鹿特丹研究中10年髋部骨折的绝对风险为8.4%。使用考克斯回归分析，年龄（70-79岁和80岁以上与
The aim of this prospective study was to develop a risk score, based on putative risk factors in current guidelines, which can be used to identify women at high risk of fractures in general practice. The study sample included 4157 women >= 60 yr of age (mean +/- SD: 74.1 +/- 9.1 yr), with a median follow-up of 8.9 yr of the Rotterdam Study (ERGO), and 762 women >= 65 yr of age (mean +/- SD: 76.0 +/- 6.7.yr), with a median follow-up of 6.0 yr of the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam (LASA). Potential risk factors were those proposed in risk scores of three recent guidelines on osteoporosis: age, family history of fractures, prior fracture, low body weight/body mass index (BMI), serious immobility, rheumatoid arthritis, current smoking, alcohol consumption >2 units daily, prevalent vertebral fracture, and systemic corticosteroid use. Five-year absolute risk of hip fracture was 3.9% in the Rotterdam Study and 3.1% in LASA, and 10-yr absolute risk of hip fracture was 8.4% in the Rotterdam Study. Using Cox regression analysis, age (70-79 and 80+ versus