Estimating prevalence of injecting drug use: a comparison of multiplier and capture-recapture methods in cities in England and Russia
Estimating prevalence of injecting drug use: a comparison of multiplier and capture-recapture methods in cities in England and Russia
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DOI：
10.1080/09595230500537274
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发表时间：
2006-03-01
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Tilling, Kate
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hickman, Matthew;Hope, Vivian;Tilling, Kate
我们考虑了应该推荐什么方法来估计注射吸毒(IDU)的流行率的问题，并比较了乘数和捕获-再捕获(CRC)估计注射吸毒(IDU)流行率的方法。使用类似的方法估计了四个城市(布莱顿、利物浦、伦敦和托利亚蒂)注射吸毒的流行率：协变量捕获-再捕获(CRC)和乘数。这些乘数要么来自社区招募调查，要么基于历史/文献，被应用于一系列“基准”：专科药物治疗、逮捕、急诊室(A&E)、注射器交换、艾滋病毒检测和阿片类药物过量死亡。儿童权利中心的估计被假定为“首选/黄金标准”[布莱顿2304人(95%可信区间1514-3737)，利物浦2910人(2546-4977)，伦敦12个行政区16782人(13793-21 620人)，托利亚蒂15039人(12 696-18 515人)]。通过社区调查获得的乘数估计的范围从布莱顿的200到770、利物浦的530到1300、伦敦的2900到10600和托利亚蒂的12400到91000不等。几个乘数得出了令人难以置信的结果，低于为另一个基准收集的观测数据，在英国的三个城市，所有这些乘数估计都低于CRC估计的较低95%可信区间。在Togliatti，只有一个乘数估计接近首选的CRC估计，其余的高得令人难以置信。基于历史/文献乘数的乘数估计范围也很广，布莱顿从390到4800，利物浦从1645到2800，伦敦12个行政区从4650到12600，托利亚蒂从12800到32000。在这三个英国城市中，死亡率乘数估计值与捕获-再捕获估计值最接近。这项研究是一项实际演示，比较了一系列乘数估计与单一CRC研究。在几乎所有的个人比较中，乘数估计都表现不佳。应首选CRC方法作为估计吸毒者人数的手段，乘数法应谨慎使用，并且仅在CRC不可能的情况下使用。
We consider the question of what method should be recommended to estimate the prevalence of injecting drug use (IDU); and compare multiplier and capture - recapture (CRC) methods of estimating prevalence of injecting drug use (IDU). The prevalence of injecting drug use in four cities (Brighton, Liverpool, London and Togliatti) was estimated using similar methods: covariate capture - recapture (CRC) and multipliers. The multipliers, generated either from a community recruited survey or historical/literature-based, were applied to a range of 'benchmarks': specialist drug treatment, arrests, accident and emergency department (A & E), syringe exchange, HIV tests and opiate overdose deaths. The CRC estimates were assumed to be 'preferred/gold standard' [2304 ( 95% confidence interval 1514 - 3737) in Brighton, 2910 (2546 - 4977) in Liverpool, 16 782 (13 793 - 21 620) in 12 London boroughs and 15 039 ( 12 696 - 18 515) male IDU in Togliatti]. The ranges given by the multiplier estimates obtained through the community survey varied from 200 to 770 in Brighton, 530 to 1300 in Liverpool, 2900 to 10 600 in London and 12 400 to 91 000 in Togliatti. Several multipliers gave implausible results, lower than the observed data collected for another benchmark, and in the three English cities all these multiplier estimates were below the lower 95% confidence interval of the CRC estimate. In Togliatti, only one multiplier estimate was close to the preferred CRC estimates, with the rest implausibly high. The multiplier estimates based on historical/literature multipliers also ranged widely from 390 to 4800 for Brighton, from 1645 to 2800 in Liverpool, from 4650 to 12 600 in the 12 London boroughs and 12 800 to 32 000 in Togliatti. In the three UK cities the mortality multiplier estimates were closest to the capture - recapture estimates. The study was a practical demonstration comparing a range of multiplier estimates with a single CRC study. In almost all the individual comparisons the multiplier estimates performed poorly. CRC methods should be preferred as the means of estimating numbers of drug users with multiplier methods being used with caution and only where CRC is not possible.