Modest flooding can trigger catastrophic road network collapse due to compound failure
Modest flooding can trigger catastrophic road network collapse due to compound failure
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DOI：
10.1038/s43247-022-00366-0
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发表时间：
2022-02-23
影响因子：
7.9
通讯作者：
Gao, Jianxi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dong, Shangjia;Gao, Xinyu;Gao, Jianxi
当城市洪水与交通拥堵同时发生时，就会发生复合故障，而人们对它们对网络连接的影响知之甚少。首先，要么考虑三维道路网络，要么考虑道路上的交通，但不能同时考虑两者。其次，我们缺乏网络科学框架来考虑基础设施网络中的复合故障。在这里，我们提出了一个基于网络理论的框架，通过考虑复合结构、功能和拓扑故障来弥补这一差距。我们使用网络渗透理论分析高分辨率交通数据，研究美国德克萨斯州哈里斯县交通网络对 2017 年哈维飓风的响应。我们发现，2.2% 的洪水引起的复合故障可能会导致存在网络连接的最大集群（即巨型组件）的规模缩小 17.7%。我们得出的结论是，在评估洪水对交通网络连通性和功能的影响时，必须考虑交通模式变化等间接影响。交通模式变化导致的拥堵等间接影响大大加剧了洪水对交通网络功能的影响，建议使用网络渗透理论分析飓风哈维对德克萨斯州哈里斯县交通的影响。
Compound failures occur when urban flooding coincides with traffic congestion, and their impact on network connectivity is poorly understood. Firstly, either three-dimensional road networks or the traffic on the roads has been considered, but not both. Secondly, we lack network science frameworks to consider compound failures in infrastructure networks. Here we present a network-theory-based framework that bridges this gap by considering compound structural, functional, and topological failures. We analyze high-resolution traffic data using network percolation theory to study the response of the transportation network in Harris County, Texas, US to Hurricane Harvey in 2017. We find that 2.2% of flood-induced compound failure may lead to a reduction in the size of the largest cluster where network connectivity exists, the giant component, 17.7%. We conclude that indirect effects, such as changes in traffic patterns, must be accounted for when assessing the impacts of flooding on transportation network connectivity and functioning.Flood impacts on the functioning of a transport network are substantially exacerbated by indirect effects such as congestion due to changing traffic patterns, suggests an analysis of the impact of Hurricane Harvey on transport in Harris County, Texas using network percolation theory.