A Multi-Level Risk Framework for Driving Safety Assessment Based on Vehicle Trajectory
A Multi-Level Risk Framework for Driving Safety Assessment Based on Vehicle Trajectory
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DOI：
10.7307/ptt.v34i6.4154
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发表时间：
2022-12
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Xiao-xia Xiong;Yu He;Xiang Gao;Yeling Zhao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Xiao-xia Xiong;Yu He;Xiang Gao;Yeling Zhao
现有的研究很少探讨公路交通安全系统中路段水平、局部区域水平和车辆水平风险之间的关系，这对于形成有效的风险事件预测具有重要意义。本文提出了一个多层次风险的框架，通过一套精心选择或设计的指标来描述。这些潜在的多层次的风险之间的相互关系，其可观察的指标进行了探索的基础上，车辆轨迹数据使用结构方程模型（SEM）。结果表明：潜在风险结构之间存在显著的正相关关系，且各结构具有足够的收敛效度，局部交通水平风险难以与路段水平风险和车辆水平风险完全分离。基于LightGBM的特征重要性评分，当风险预测时间变早时，本地和道路级别指标也被发现具有更重要的意义。建议的概念性多层次指标为基础的潜在风险框架一般符合观察到的结果，并强调包括多层次指标的风险事件预测在未来的重要性。
Few existing research studies have explored the relationship of road section level, local area level and vehicle level risks within the highway traffic safety system, which can be important to the formation of an effective risk event prediction. This paper proposes a framework of multi-level risks described by a set of carefully selected or designed indicators. The interrelationship among these latent multi-level risks and their observable indicators are explored based on vehicle trajectory data using the structural equation model (SEM). The results show that there exists significant positive correlation between the latent risk constructs that each have adequate convergent validity, and it is difficult to completely separate the local traffic level risk from both the road section level risk and vehicle level risk. The local and road level indicators are also found to be of more importance when risk prediction time gets earlier based on feature importance scoring of the LightGBM. The proposed conceptual multi-level indicator based latent risk framework generally fits with the observed results and emphasises the importance of including multi-level indicators for risk event prediction in the future.