A COHORT ANALYSIS OF LUNG-CANCER AND SMOKING IN BRITISH MALES
A COHORT ANALYSIS OF LUNG-CANCER AND SMOKING IN BRITISH MALES
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DOI：
10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a113779
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发表时间：
1984-01-01
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
MOOLGAVKAR, SH
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
STEVENS, RG;MOOLGAVKAR, SH
分析了1941-1975年英国英格兰和威尔士25-84岁年龄组男性的肺癌死亡率。使用烟草研究理事会的卷烟消费信息和统计模型，估计相对和归因风险。肺癌死亡可分为吸烟者死亡和非吸烟者死亡;在研究期间，88%的男性死亡可归因于吸烟。吸烟者的死亡率在整个分析期间都在上升，而非吸烟者的死亡率在1956-1960年之前逐渐上升，然后下降，直到1971 ~ 1975年。下降的开始与1956年《清洁空气法》的实施相吻合。为了解决吸烟数据中可能存在的系统性偏倚，进行了Monte Carlo模拟。
Lung cancer mortality in England and Wales, UK, among males in the age group 25-84 over the years 1941-1975 was analyzed. Using cigarette consumption information from the Tobacco Research Council and a statistical model, relative and attributable risks were estimated. The lung cancer deaths could be partitioned into deaths among smokers and deaths among nonsmokers; 88% of total male deaths during the study period could be attributed to smoking. Whereas the mortality rate among smokers increased over the entire span of the analysis, the rate among nonsmokers rose gradually until 1956-1960 and then declined until 1971-1975. The beginning of the decline was coincident with the implementation of the Clean Air Act of 1956. To address possible systematic biases in the smoking data, Monte Carlo simulations were performed.