Information Search in Decisions From Experience: Do Our Patterns of Sampling Foreshadow Our Decisions?
Information Search in Decisions From Experience: Do Our Patterns of Sampling Foreshadow Our Decisions?
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DOI：
10.1177/0956797610387443
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发表时间：
2010-12-01
影响因子：
8.2
通讯作者：
Hertwig, Ralph
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hills, Thomas T.;Hertwig, Ralph
不同的抽样模式是否会影响人们做出的决策，即使决策所依据的信息是相同的？选项之间的切换是否与不同的决策策略相关？在过去的研究中，搜索和决策模式之间的对应关系一直很难确定，因为所获得的信息往往混淆了其后果的探索-开发权衡。我们使用了一个抽样任务，在这个任务中，信息在被利用之前被探索。我们发现搜索模式确实揭示了决策策略。在选项之间转换更频繁的人更有可能选择在回合比较中大部分时间获胜的选项，并且更有可能低估罕见的风险事件。在选项之间的切换较少与选择在总结比较的基础上长期获胜的选项相关，这些选择与预期价值最大化和结果的线性加权一致。
Do different patterns of sampling influence the decisions people make, even when the information the decisions are based on is equivalent? Do more and less switching between options correlate with different kinds of decision policies? In past research, the correspondence between search and decision patterns has been difficult to ascertain because the information obtained has often been confounded with its consequences in an exploration-exploitation trade-off. We used a sampling task in which information is explored prior to being exploited. We found that search patterns did reveal decision policies. Individuals who transitioned more frequently between options were more likely to choose options that win most of the time in round-wise comparisons and were more likely to underweight rare, risky events. Less switching between options was associated with choosing options that win in the long run on the basis of summary comparisons-decisions consistent with expected-value maximization and linear weighting of outcomes.