Comparing strategies for representing individual-tree secondary growth in mixed-species stands in the Acadian Forest region
Comparing strategies for representing individual-tree secondary growth in mixed-species stands in the Acadian Forest region
复制标题
阿卡迪亚森林地区混合树种中单棵树次生生长的比较策略
DOI：
10.1016/j.foreco.2019.117823
复制
发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Kershaw, J.A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kuehne, C.;Russell, M.B.;Weiskittel, A.R.;Kershaw, J.A.
树木直径增量(ΔDBH)是森林生长和产量模型的关键组成部分，因为预测被传递到其他子模型，树木水平的估计被放大以代表样地和林分水平的测量。在混交林中面临的一个常见问题是，Δ胸径需要描述许多物种的特征，每个物种具有不同的生长速度、遮荫耐受性和竞争能力。此外，已经使用了各种方法来模拟Δ胸径，但对每个物种的一般适宜性和总体预测精度的影响尚不清楚。这项分析使用了北美阿卡迪亚林区16,204块永久样地的2,656,354个观测值的重新测量数据，以开发和比较估算Δ胸径和树干断面积增量(ΔBA)的替代方法。代表了61个物种或属，其中包括几个N=10的物种或属，根据物种的不同，观察到的平均增长率从0到1.08亿厘米/年−1。用不同的评价统计方法对15个最丰富树种的胸径预测模型进行分析，结果表明：1)模拟Δ胸径总体上优于估算ΔBA的方法；2)预测潜在生长量和相应的乘性修改量的两阶段建模程序与以统一模型形式预测已实现Δ胸径或ΔBA的策略相比，大多逊色；3)特定物种的已实现生长量模型与将物种模拟为随机效应的模型相比，表现出相似的行为和精度。当投影长度增加时(≥30年)，这些关键发现变得更加明显。因此，我们的研究表明，通过将树种作为随机效应来考虑混交林(包括稀有树种)中树木的Δ胸径差异，直径预测是有效和灵活的。然而，用混合效应建模方法得出的稀有物种的曲线仍然需要评估其生物学可信度，因为不平衡或有偏见的数据可能会导致不具特征的和潜在的不合逻辑的行为。总体而言，这项研究强调了在一系列物种和条件下准确预测Δ胸径的挑战，但为未来混合树种森林的分析提供了一个总体框架。
Tree diameter increment (ΔDBH) is a key component of a forest growth and yield model as predictions are passed to other submodels and tree-level estimates are scaled up to represent plot- and stand-level measures. A common problem faced in mixed-species stands is that ΔDBH needs to be characterized for numerous species, each with varying growth rates, shade tolerances, and competitive abilities. In addition, a variety of approaches have been used to model ΔDBH with unclear implications for general suitability for each species and overall prediction accuracy. This analysis used remeasurement data comprising 2,656,354 observations from 16,204 permanent sample plots across the Acadian Forest region of North America to develop and compare alternative approaches to estimating ΔDBH as well as stem basal area increment (ΔBA). Sixty-one species or genera including several with N < 10 were represented where observed mean growth rates ranged from 0 to 1.08 cm yr−1, depending on species. Analyzing several modeling approaches to project DBH of the 15 most abundant species using various evaluation statistics to quantify prediction performance, this study showed that i) modeling ΔDBH was generally superior compared to approaches that estimated ΔBA, ii) a two-stage modeling procedure predicting potential growth and a corresponding multiplicative modifier to derive ultimate increment was mostly inferior compared to strategies predicting realized ΔDBH or ΔBA in a unified model form, and iii) species-specific, realized increment models exhibited similar behavior and accuracy compared to models fitted with modeling species as random effect. These key findings became even more evident when projection lengths increased (≥ 30 years). Our study thus showed the efficiency and flexibility of diameter predictions by including tree species as a random effect to account for ΔDBH differences of trees in mixed-species stands, including infrequent species. However, curves for rare species derived with the mixed effects modeling approach still need to be evaluated for biological plausibility as unbalanced or biased data can lead to uncharacteristic and potentially illogical behavior. Overall, the study highlights the challenges of accurately predicting ΔDBH across a range of species and conditions, but offers a general framework for future analyses in mixed species forests.
登录
查看更多内容
加拿大西部北方森林短叶松生长和死亡的确定性模型
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
Vlad C. Strimbu;M. Bokalo;P. Comeau
通讯作者：
P. Comeau
兼容黑松、颤杨和白云杉的直径和高度增量模型
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2009
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
T. Nunifu
通讯作者：
T. Nunifu
太平洋西北地区种植园花旗松、西部铁杉和红桤木的年化直径和高度生长方程。
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2007
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
A. Weiskittel;S. Garber;G. Johnson;D. Maguire;R. Monserud
通讯作者：
R. Monserud
云杉-冷杉对除草剂和商业化前间伐的长期反应：美国缅因州中部观察到的和预计的生长、产量和财务回报
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
M. Bataineh;R. Wagner;A. Weiskittel
通讯作者：
A. Weiskittel
聚合树种以开发热带雨林的直径增量方程
DOI：
--
发表时间：
1991
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
J. Vanclay
通讯作者：
J. Vanclay