The environmental predictors of spatio-temporal variation in the breeding phenology of a passerine bird.
The environmental predictors of spatio-temporal variation in the breeding phenology of a passerine bird.
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雀形目鸟类繁殖物候时空变化的环境预测因素。
DOI：
10.1098/rspb.2019.0952
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Shutt JD
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Shutt JD
建立影响鸟类繁殖时间的线索或约束是准确预测未来物候的关键。本研究旨在确定环境因素对食虫林地雀形目蓝山雀 (Cyanistes caeruleus) 的两种繁殖物候学测量（筑巢起始和产卵日期）时间的影响。我们分析了 3 年来从 220 公里长、40 个地点的横断面收集的数据，并将春季气温、树叶物候、无脊椎动物可用性和光周期视为繁殖物候的预测因子。我们发现早春的夜间平均温度是筑巢和产蛋日期的最强预测因素，并表明这一发现与作为繁殖活动限制的温度最为一致。除了温度之外，桦树发芽物候学还可以作为直接线索或通过相关变量间接预测产蛋日期。我们使用交叉验证来表明我们的模型准确地预测了未来两年的产蛋日期，并发现类似的变量在英国国家巢记录计划中可以很好地预测产蛋日期。这项工作加深了我们对影响山雀繁殖物候时间的主要因素的理解，并表明温度可能具有直接和间接影响。
Establishing the cues or constraints that influence avian timing of breeding is the key to accurate prediction of future phenology. This study aims to identify the aspects of the environment that predict the timing of two measures of breeding phenology (nest initiation and egg laying date) in an insectivorous woodland passerine, the blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus). We analyse data collected from a 220 km, 40-site transect over 3 years and consider spring temperatures, tree leafing phenology, invertebrate availability and photoperiod as predictors of breeding phenology. We find that mean night-time temperature in early spring is the strongest predictor of both nest initiation and lay date and suggest this finding is most consistent with temperature acting as a constraint on breeding activity. Birch budburst phenology significantly predicts lay date additionally to temperature, either as a direct cue or indirectly via a correlated variable. We use cross-validation to show that our model accurately predicts lay date in two further years and find that similar variables predict lay date well across the UK national nest record scheme. This work refines our understanding of the principal factors influencing the timing of tit reproductive phenology and suggests that temperature may have both a direct and indirect effect.