A Statistical Method for Separating Urban Effect Trends from Observed Temperature Data and its Appli
A Statistical Method for Separating Urban Effect Trends from Observed Temperature Data and its Appli
复制标题
温度观测数据分离城市效应趋势的统计方法及其应用
DOI：
10.2151/jmsj1965.74.5_639
复制
发表时间：
1996
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
H. Kato
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
H. Kato
将城市化的影响（城市效应温度趋势）与城市监测点的观测数据分离是检测全球变暖影响的一个重要问题。本文提出了一种利用区域温度数据主成分分析的统计方法，将城市效应温度趋势与城市站（包括附近没有农村参考站的城市站）的观测温度记录分离开来。在对该方法进行数学描述之后，给出了对任意站点的趋势叠加的模型数据进行分析的一个例子来说明该方法。本例不仅阐明了叠加趋势在各主成分得分（Z-score）趋势中的表现（影响、权重），而且展示了如何通过该方法将所有叠加趋势从模型数据中分离出来。该方法应用于日本51个气象站近73年（1920—1992）的月平均气温资料，并将各气象站的城市效应温度趋势与观测温度趋势分离。分析结果表明，1993年日本10万以上站城市效应温度的最大变化趋势为1.0 ~ 2.5°C/100年，与美国和中国的变化趋势基本一致。大城市的城市效应温度变化趋势在冷季大于暖季，冬季或秋季最大，夏季最小。去除城市效应后，日本站年平均气温变化趋势在日本北部0.5°C/100年至日本西部1.1°C/100年之间，日本的面积平均值为0.8°C/100年。冬季和春季（12 ~ 5月）的上升趋势最为显著，地表平均值为1.0 ~ 1.6°C/100 a， 3月最大。另一方面，它们在夏季和秋季没有标记。特别是在日本北部，从7月到11月出现负增长趋势。-1.0°C/100年以下负趋势的面积在7月主要分布在日本东北部大部分地区，但不包括日本南部，呈轻微正趋势。由于温度趋势的区域差异，夏季和秋季南北温度梯度增大，7月和10月的趋势差最大，为2.0°C/100 a。
Separating the impact of urbanization (urban effect temperature trends) from observational data at urban monitoring sites is an important problem in the detection of global warming impacts. A statistical method using principal component analysis of the temperature data in an area was developed to separate the urban effect temperature trend from the observed temperature record at urban stations, including those without nearby rural reference stations. After the mathematical description of the method, an example of the analysis for model data on which some trends are superimposed (given) at any stations was shown for an explanation of the method. This example not only clarified the performance (impact, weight) of the superimposed trend in the trend for each principal component score (Z-score) but also showed how all the superimposed trends were separated from the model data by this method. This method was applied to monthly mean temperature data for the past 73 years (1920-1992) from 51 meteorological stations in Japan, and the urban effect temperature trend at each station was separated from the observed temperature trend. As a result of the analysis, it was clarified that in Japan the maximum urban effect temperature trends at stations with a population of over 100 thousand in 1993 were 1.0-2.5°C/100 years, which were almost the same as those in the United States and China. The urban effect temperature trends in big cities are larger in the cold season than in the warm season, being maximum in winter or autumn and minimum in summer. After removing the urban effect temperature trend, the annual mean temperature trends at stations in Japan over the period analyzed ranged from 0.5°C/100 years in northern Japan to 1.1°C/100 years in western Japan with the areal mean for Japan of 0.8°C/100 years. The positive trends are most notable in winter and spring (December to May), and show areal mean values of 1.0-1.6°C/100 years with the maximum in March. On the other hand, they are not marked in summer and autumn. In particular, in the northern part of Japan, negative trends appear from July to November. The area with negative trends below -1.0°C/100 years extends over most of the northeastern half of Japan in July, but does not reach the southern part of Japan, which has a slight positive trend. As a result of these regional differences in temperature trends, the north-south temperature gradient increases in summer and autumn with the maximum trend difference of 2.0°C/100 years in July and October.
241-251 (1992)
DOI：
--
发表时间：
--
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
通讯作者：
--