Is a Change in the Renminbi Exchange Rate in China's Interest?1
Is a Change in the Renminbi Exchange Rate in China's Interest?1
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人民币汇率变动对中国有利吗？1
DOI：
10.1162/asep.2005.4.1.40
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发表时间：
2005
影响因子：
9.7
通讯作者：
Barry Eichengreen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Barry Eichengreen
本文回顾了中国汇率制度的争论。将这一问题置于退出战略文献的背景下，它认为，中国退出盯住汇率制度的最佳时机是现在，此时资本正在流入，而且汇率有升值的趋势。相比之下，等到市场情绪好转再退出将是有问题的。此外，现在转向有管理的浮动将有助于中国当局更好地控制国内信贷状况。对这一建议的主要反对意见（即，银行体系薄弱，国有企业亏损严重，资本账户开放不够等）都难以令人信服。最后，对其他国家的影响可能比其他分析所显示的更为复杂和多样。
This paper reviews the controversy over China's exchange rate regime. Placing the issue in the context of the literature on exit strategies, it argues that the best time for China to exit from its peg is now while capital is flowing in and there is a tendency for the rate to appreciate. In contrast, waiting to exit until sentiment has turned around would be problematic. In addition, moving now to a managed float would help the Chinese authorities to gain better control of domestic credit conditions. The principal objections to this recommendation (viz., the banking system is weak, many state enterprises are loss making, and the capital account is not sufficiently open) are unconvincing. Finally, the impact on other countries is likely to be more complex and varied than suggested by other analyses.