Spatial dynamics in a metapopulation network: recovery of a rare grasshopper Stauvoderus scalaris from population refuges
Spatial dynamics in a metapopulation network: recovery of a rare grasshopper Stauvoderus scalaris from population refuges
复制标题
集合种群网络中的空间动态：从种群避难所恢复稀有蚱蜢 Stauvoderus scalaris
DOI：
10.1111/j.1600-0587.2001.tb00480.x
复制
发表时间：
2001
期刊：
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
O. Kindvall
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Carlsson;O. Kindvall
许多物种的空间分布的一个特征是斑块。这种空间斑块可能是由非常不同的过程，如破碎化，继承和定居动态。在这项研究中，我们应用一个空间现实集合种群模型来分析一种珍稀濒危蝗虫，Stauroderus scalaris的占用模式。在一个由158个补丁组成的广泛网络中发现。当研究于1985年开始时，该地区的入住率为9.3%，1989年下降到7.1%。然后是人口的空间扩展，在1993年多达27.3%的斑块被占用，1995年为32.9%。在这个扩展阶段，动态服从集合种群的原则：大补丁和孤立的更有可能被殖民。在最初，局部灭绝的风险是负相关的斑块大小和隔离的积极影响。然而，后来无论是面积还是隔离都不影响灭绝概率。共观察到20个定居点和56个定居点。区域占用率的变化，增长约20%，与斑块网络的扰动和140年来最热的夏天相吻合。我们的研究结果表明，S. scalaris坚持动态生境镶嵌，在不利时期，避难所是至关重要的，随机环境因素（干扰和气候）在大面积上相互关联，正在产生难以用目前的建模技术预测的种群动态模式。
A characteristic feature of the spatial distribution of many species is patchiness. This spatial patchiness may be generated by very different processes, e.g. fragmentation, succession and extinction-colonisation dynamics. In this study, we apply a spatial realistic metapopulation model to analyse the occupancy pattern of a rare and endangered grasshopper, Stauroderus scalaris. found in an extensive network of 158 patches. When the study was initiated in 1985 the regional occupancy was 9.3% declining down to 7.1% in 1989. Then there was a spatial expansion of the population and in 1993 as many as 27.3% of the patches were occupied and 32.9% in 1995. During this expansion phase, the dynamics obeyed metapopulation principles: large patches and less isolated ones were more likely to be colonised. In the beginning, local extinction risks were negatively related to patch size and positively influenced by isolation. However, later on neither area nor isolation affected extinction probabilities. Altogether, 20 extinctions and 56 colonisations were observed. The shift in regional occupancy, with a growth of ca 20%, coincides with perturbations to the patch network and the warmest summer in 140 yr. Our results suggest that S. scalaris persists on a dynamic habitat mosaic, where refuges are crucial during adverse periods, and stochastic environmental factors (disturbances and climate), that are correlated over large areas, are generating population dynamic patterns that are hard to predict using current modelling techniques.