The Long-Term Labor Market Consequences of Graduating from College in a Bad Economy
The Long-Term Labor Market Consequences of Graduating from College in a Bad Economy
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DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.702463
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发表时间：
2006-09
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Lisa B. Kahn
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文献类型：
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作者：
Lisa B. Kahn
本文研究了白人男性大学毕业生的劳动力市场经验，作为大学毕业时经济条件的函数。我使用的是全国青年纵向调查，受访者在1979年至1989年之间从大学毕业。我估计了大学毕业时国家和州的经济状况对职业生涯前二十年劳动力市场结果的影响。由于大学毕业的时间和地点可能会受到经济状况的影响，我还使用出生年份（早期居住的州）来计算大学失业率。我发现，在一个更糟糕的经济环境中毕业，对工资的负面影响在整个研究期间都存在。我还发现，在经济状况较差的国家毕业的学生从事的职业水平较低，任期略长，教育程度较高，而劳动力供应不受影响。总的来说，研究结果表明，在经济不景气的情况下，大学毕业对劳动力市场的影响是巨大的、负面的和持久的。
This paper studies the labor market experiences of white-male college graduates as a function of economic conditions at time of college graduation. I use the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth whose respondents graduated from college between 1979 and 1989. I estimate the effects of both national and state economic conditions at time of college graduation on labor market outcomes for the first two decades of a career. Because timing and location of college graduation could potentially be affected by economic conditions, I also instrument for the college unemployment rate using year of birth (state of residence at an early age for the state analysis). I find large, negative wage effects of graduating in a worse economy which persist for the entire period studied. I also find that cohorts who graduate in worse national economies are in lower-level occupations, have slightly higher tenure and higher educational attainment, while labor supply is unaffected. Taken as a whole, the results suggest that the labor market consequences of graduating from college in a bad economy are large, negative and persistent.