Profiling risk and sustainability in coastal deltas of the world
Profiling risk and sustainability in coastal deltas of the world
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DOI：
10.1126/science.aab3574
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发表时间：
2015-08-07
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Foufoula-Georgiou, E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tessler, Z. D.;Voeroesmarty, C. J.;Foufoula-Georgiou, E.
三角洲地区对当地人类活动、地面沉降、区域水资源管理、全球海平面上升和极端气候等日益增加的风险高度敏感。我们使用一套综合的全球环境、地球物理和社会指标，量化了极端事件导致的不断变化的洪水风险。尽管风险分布在经济发展的各个层面，但富裕国家通过国内生产总值带动的基础设施和海防投资，有效地限制了它们目前的威胁。在能源有限的未来，这样的保护可能会被证明是不可持续的，密西西比河和莱茵河三角洲的相对风险会增加四到八倍，湄南河三角洲和扬子江三角洲的风险会增加1.5到四倍。目前对世界三角洲短期解决方案的重视将极大地限制长期设计可持续解决方案的选择。
Deltas are highly sensitive to increasing risks arising from local human activities, land subsidence, regional water management, global sea-level rise, and climate extremes. We quantified changing flood risk due to extreme events using an integrated set of global environmental, geophysical, and social indicators. Although risks are distributed across all levels of economic development, wealthy countries effectively limit their present-day threat by gross domestic product-enabled infrastructure and coastal defense investments. In an energy-constrained future, such protections will probably prove to be unsustainable, raising relative risks by four to eight times in the Mississippi and Rhine deltas and by one-and-a-half to four times in the Chao Phraya and Yangtze deltas. The current emphasis on short-term solutions for the world's deltas will greatly constrain options for designing sustainable solutions in the long term.