Risk and Uncertainty Communication
Risk and Uncertainty Communication
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DOI：
10.1146/annurev-statistics-010814-020148
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发表时间：
2017-01-01
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Spiegelhalter, David
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Spiegelhalter, David
本综述简要审查了用于传达统计分析产生的风险评估的各种技术。在讨论了基本的心理和社会学问题后，我重点关注个人健康风险以及有关数字、言语表达、图形和传达更深层次不确定性的相关研究。然后，我考虑了一系列不同案例研究的实践，包括赌博、药品的好处和风险、天气预报、自然灾害、气候变化、环境暴露、安全和情报、工业可靠性以及灾难性的国家和全球风险。有一些初步的最终结论，但主要信息是接受专家指导、明确目标并与目标受众密切合作。
This review briefly examines the vast range of techniques used to communicate risk assessments arising from statistical analysis. After discussing essential psychological and sociological issues, I focus on individual health risks and relevant research on communicating numbers, verbal expressions, graphics, and conveying deeper uncertainty. I then consider practice in a selection of diverse case studies, including gambling, the benefits and risks of pharmaceuticals, weather forecasting, natural hazards, climate change, environmental exposures, security and intelligence, industrial reliability, and catastrophic national and global risks. There are some tentative final conclusions, but the primary message is to acknowledge expert guidance, be clear about objectives, and work closely with intended audiences.