Estimating the relative incidence of heroin use: Application of a method for adjusting observed reports of first visits to specialized drug treatment agencies
Estimating the relative incidence of heroin use: Application of a method for adjusting observed reports of first visits to specialized drug treatment agencies
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DOI：
10.1093/aje/153.7.632
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发表时间：
2001-04-01
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
de Angelis, D
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hickman, M;Seaman, S;de Angelis, D
在本文中，作者提出了一种方法来估计海洛因使用的发病率，调整报告的海洛因使用者访问药物治疗机构之间的时间滞后的海洛因使用和第一次治疗请求（滞后分布）。调整后的发病率是相对的，因为它代表每年开始使用海洛因的人数，其病例将在开始使用后8年内报告。滞后时间较长或从未报告病例的用户被排除在外。利用来自英格兰东南部（1991-1998年）的数据，作者分析了协变量（性别、年龄组、种族组、消费途径和开始使用药物的年份）对滞后分布的影响。注射者和非注射者的海洛因使用调整发生率趋势大不相同：注射者的发生率似乎稳定，而非注射者的发生率在1991年至1996-1997年期间增加了两倍。必须谨慎解释这些结果，特别是在人口基本趋势的更广泛背景下。潜在的偏差来自报告不足和接受治疗的海洛因使用者比例的变化。滞后校正方法大大增加了常规治疗数据的价值，至少对于海洛因的使用，并且可能是获得发病率估计值的最佳方法。
In this paper, the authors propose a method for estimating the incidence of heroin use by adjusting reported numbers of heroin users visiting drug treatment agencies for the time lag between onset of heroin use and first treatment request (lag distribution). The adjusted incidence is relative, since it represents the number of individuals beginning heroin use in each year whose cases will be reported within 8 years of starting use. Users with longer lag times or whose cases are never reported are excluded. Utilizing data from southeastern England (1991-1998), the authors analyzed the effects of covariates (sex, age group, ethnic group, route of consumption, and year of onset of drug use) on the lag distribution. Trends in the adjusted incidence of heroin use were very different for injectors and noninjectors: Incidence among injectors seemed to be stable, while in noninjectors it increased twofold between 1991 and 1996-1997. These results must be interpreted cautiously, especially in relation to the wider context of underlying trends in the population. Potential biases derive from underreporting and from changes in the proportion of heroin users in treatment. The lag correction method adds substantially to the value of routine treatment data, at least for heroin use, and is potentially the best method for obtaining estimates of incidence.