Vaccine rollout strategies: The case for vaccinating essential workers early.
Vaccine rollout strategies: The case for vaccinating essential workers early.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1371/journal.pgph.0000020
复制
发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Colijn C
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mulberry N;Tupper P;Kirwin E;McCabe C;Colijn C
在针对新冠肺炎的疫苗接种活动中，许多司法管辖区正在使用基于年龄的推广战略，这反映出老年群体出现严重感染后果的风险要高得多。随着越来越多的证据表明，批准的疫苗不仅在预防不良后果方面有效，而且在预防感染方面也有效，我们表明，这种战略不如优先考虑关键工作者的战略有效。这一结论适用于许多结果，包括病例、住院、长期COVID(症状持续超过28天的病例)、死亡和净货币收益。我们的分析适用于疫苗供应有限、推出时间延长数月的地区。在这样一个拥有500万人口的环境中，我们估计，及早接种疫苗可以防止超过20万人感染，超过600人死亡，并产生超过5亿美元的净货币收益。
In vaccination campaigns against COVID-19, many jurisdictions are using age-based rollout strategies, reflecting the much higher risk of severe outcomes of infection in older groups. In the wake of growing evidence that approved vaccines are effective at preventing not only adverse outcomes, but also infection, we show that such strategies are less effective than strategies that prioritize essential workers. This conclusion holds across numerous outcomes, including cases, hospitalizations, Long COVID (cases with symptoms lasting longer than 28 days), deaths and net monetary benefit. Our analysis holds in regions where the vaccine supply is limited, and rollout is prolonged for several months. In such a setting with a population of 5M, we estimate that vaccinating essential workers sooner prevents over 200,000 infections, over 600 deaths, and produces a net monetary benefit of over $500M.