Rethinking the global food crisis: The role of trade shocks
Rethinking the global food crisis: The role of trade shocks
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DOI：
10.1016/j.foodpol.2010.10.003
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发表时间：
2011-04-01
期刊：
影响因子：
6.5
通讯作者：
Headey, Derek
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Headey, Derek
尽管基本面因素显然是导致2008年粮食危机前几年世界粮食价格向更高均衡水平转变的原因，但毫无疑问，当粮食价格在2008年6月达到峰值时，它们飙升至远高于新的均衡价格。人们提出了许多论点来解释过度，包括金融投机、美元贬值、低利率和粮食库存减少。然而，印度和越南的出口限制导致国际大米价格飙升的观察表明，与贸易有关的因素可能是超调的重要基础，特别是考虑到出口量和出口价格之间非常明显的联系。在本文中，我们通过仔细研究泰国（最大的大米出口国）和美国（最大的小麦和玉米出口国以及第三大大豆出口国）的月度数据来重新审视贸易情况。在所有情况下，除了大豆，我们发现，出口量的大幅激增之前的价格飙升。这些大规模需求激增的存在，以及对其价格影响的粗略估计，表明贸易事件所起的作用比以前认为的要大得多，也更普遍。(C)2010爱思唯尔有限公司保留所有权利。
Although fundamental factors were clearly responsible for shifting the world to a higher food price equilibrium in the years leading up the 2008 food crisis, there is little doubt that when food prices peaked in June of 2008, they soared well above the new equilibrium price. Numerous arguments have been proposed to explain overshooting, including financial speculation, depreciation of the United States (US) dollar, low interest rates, and reductions in grain stocks. However, observations that international rice prices surged in response to export restrictions by India and Vietnam suggested that trade-related factors could be an important basis for overshooting, especially given the very tangible link between export volumes and export prices. In this paper, we revisit the trade story by closely examining monthly data from Thailand (the largest exporter of rice), and the United States (the largest exporter of wheat and maize and the third largest exporter of soybeans). In all cases except soybeans, we find that large surges in export volumes preceded the price surges. The presence of these large demand surges, together with back-of-the-envelope estimates of their price impacts, suggests that trade events played a much larger and more pervasive role than previously thought. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.