The effects of China's universal two-child policy.
The effects of China's universal two-child policy.
复制标题
中国全面二孩政策的影响
DOI：
10.1016/s0140-6736(16)31405-2
复制
发表时间：
2016-10-15
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Hesketh T
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zeng Y;Hesketh T
2015年10月，中国的独生子女政策被普遍的两孩政策取代。新政策的影响不可避免地是推测性的，但可以根据最近的趋势进行预测。人口增长将相对较小，在2029年达到14.5亿的峰值（如果独生子女政策继续下去，则在2023年达到14亿的峰值）。新政策将允许几乎所有的中国人有他们喜欢的孩子数量。新政策的好处包括：大量减少未经批准怀孕的堕胎，实际上消除了未登记儿童的问题，以及更正常的性别比例。所有这些影响都应该改善健康结果。新政策对劳动力萎缩和人口迅速老龄化的影响在20年内不会明显。与此同时，需要采取更健全的政策行动，以满足老年人口的社会、健康和护理需求。
In October, 2015, China’s one-child policy was replaced by a universal two-child policy. The effects of the new policy are inevitably speculative, but predictions can be made based on recent trends. The population increase will be relatively small, peaking at 1·45 billion in 2029 (compared with a peak of 1·4 billion in 2023 if the one-child policy continued). The new policy will allow almost all Chinese people to have their preferred number of children. The benefits of the new policy include: a large reduction in abortions of unapproved pregnancies, virtual elimination of the problem of unregistered children, and a more normal sex ratio. All of these effects should improve health outcomes. Effects of the new policy on the shrinking workforce and rapid population ageing will not be evident for two decades. In the meantime, more sound policy actions are needed to meet the social, health, and care needs of the elderly population.