Dynamic simulations of compact city development to counter future population decline
Dynamic simulations of compact city development to counter future population decline
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紧凑城市发展的动态模拟以应对未来人口下降
DOI：
10.1016/j.cities.2022.103753
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发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Kobayakawa Satoru
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kikuchi Hiroki;Emberger Guenter;Ishida Haruo;Fukuda Atsushi;Kobayakawa Satoru
该研究采用动态空间土地使用/交通模型，模拟了紧凑型城市政策对城市服务和城市财政的影响。大都市活动搬迁模拟器（MARS）被选为动态和空间的土地利用/交通模型，分析动态城市聚集随时间的变化。然而，使用现有的MARS无法模拟人口减少情况下的紧凑城市政策。因此，为了动态模拟紧凑型城市政策，MARS通过增加两个额外的子模型进行了调整，重点是城市服务水平和城市财政。在此基础上，分析了聚集过程中城市服务水平和城市财政状况，模拟了人口减少的紧凑型城市的政策。随后，通过模拟人口减少的紧凑型城市的政策，分析了整合过程中的城市服务水平和城市财政。研究结果表明，城市与郊区公共服务水平差距扩大，地方政府成本增加。因此，在人口持续减少的情况下，发展紧凑型城市可能是缓解这种状况的一种手段，而实施补贴和优惠政策是将居民转移到城市地区并鼓励紧凑型城市的重要措施。
The study simulated the impact of compact city policies on urban services and urban finances by employing a dynamic and spatial land use/transport model. The Metropolitan Activity Relocation Simulator (MARS) was selected as the dynamic and spatial land use/transport model to analyze dynamic urban aggregation changes over time. However, it was not possible to simulate the compact city policies under population decline using the existing MARS. Thus, to dynamically simulate the compact city policies, the MARS was adapted by adding two additional sub-models focused on urban service levels and urban finances. The urban service levels and urban finances were then analyzed during the aggregation process to simulate the policies for a compact city with a declining population. Subsequently, the urban service levels and urban finances were analyzed during the consolidation by simulating the policies for a compact city with a declining population. The findings showed that the disparities in urban areas and suburban public service levels widened, and the local government costs increased by implementing the policy. It was, therefore, concluded that the development of a compact city might be a relief to this situation under continuing population decline, and the implementation of subsidy and preferential treatment policies are greatly required to move residents to urban areas and encourage the compact city.