Fake news and its electoral consequences: a survey experiment on Mexico
Fake news and its electoral consequences: a survey experiment on Mexico
复制标题
假新闻及其选举后果：墨西哥的一项调查实验
DOI：
10.1007/s00146-022-01541-9
复制
发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
Takahashi Yuriko
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Iida Takeshi;Song Jaehyun;Estrada Jose Luis;Takahashi Yuriko
这项研究考察了假新闻对选举结果的影响。之前的研究利用选举后的调查发现，接触假新闻与投票行为之间存在关联，尽管这些观察性研究未能证明这些变化实际上是由假新闻引起的。为了检验假新闻是否真的会影响投票行为，我们需要通过实验操纵选民在真实选举中接触假新闻的情况，看看选民在知道这些信息是虚假的情况下是否会后悔自己的投票选择。为此，我们的研究重点是墨西哥2018年的总统选举，这提供了一个理想的环境。在竞选期间，关于据称涉及国家行动党候选人里卡多·阿纳亚的丑闻的虚假信息被广泛传播。然而，他的清白在选举后被正式承认。我们以对假新闻的更正作为治疗方法，对1561人的样本进行了测试，以评估撤回假新闻是否会导致选举后后悔：如果墨西哥选民没有接触到此类虚假信息，他们的投票方式会有所不同吗？我们的多变量分析发现，在内部政治效能较低的选民中，假新闻撤稿确实会导致选后后悔，但政治知识和内部政治效能较高的选民不受撤稿的影响，后悔的可能性也较小。约20%的受访者（N= 168）在选举后感到后悔，其中约35%的人会转而投票给Anaya。这些发现证实了假新闻的持久影响，它可能对选举结果产生不可忽视的影响。
This study examined the effect of fake news on electoral outcome. Using post-election surveys, previous studies found associations between exposure to fake news and voting behavior, though these observational studies failed to show that these changes were actually caused by fake news. To examine whether fake news really affects voting behavior, we need to experimentally manipulate voters’ exposure to fake news in real elections and see if voters regret their vote choice knowing that the information was false. For this purpose, our study focused on Mexico’s 2018 presidential election, which provided an ideal setting. During the campaign, false information about a scandal allegedly involving Ricardo Anaya, a candidate from the National Action Party, was widely disseminated. However, his innocence was officially acknowledged after the election. Using this correction of fake news as a treatment, we tested a sample of 1,561 individuals to assess whether the retraction of fake news caused post-election regret: would Mexican voters have voted differently if they had not been exposed to such false information. Our multivariate analyses found that the retraction of fake news did cause post-election regret among voters with lower internal political efficacy, but voters associated with higher political knowledge and internal political efficacy were not affected by the retraction and were less likely to experience regret. About 20% of the respondents (N= 168) experienced post-election regret, and of those, about 35% would have switched their vote to Anaya. The findings corroborate lasting effects of fake news, which may have non-negligible effects on electoral outcomes.