Credibility gap in net-zero climate targets leaves world at high risk
Credibility gap in net-zero climate targets leaves world at high risk
复制标题
净零气候目标的可信度差距使世界面临高风险
作者：
J. Rogelj;T. Fransen;M. D. den Elzen;Robin D. Lamboll;Clea F. Schumer;T. Kuramochi;F. Hans;S. Mooldijk;J. Portugal
着眼于政策而不是承诺表明，全球气候目标可能远远达不到全球气候政策正在经历的通过仪式。曾经是关于雄心勃勃的目标设定的对话，现在越来越多地集中在实现这些目标的实施和干预上。从雄心壮志到实施的这一关键过渡是复杂的，并带来了深刻的模棱两可的问题，这对科学家的沟通和决策者的理解具有挑战性。一个关键的问题是，我们是否相信各国会兑现它们所作的承诺。通过评估各国净零目标的政策特征，我们可以对目标进行可信度评级，然后估计我们对目标的信心如何区分温室气体(GHG)排放和气温。当我们考虑当前气候承诺的可信度时，我们的评估表明，世界距离提供一个安全的气候未来还有很长的路要走。
Description Looking at policies instead of promises shows that global climate targets may be missed by a large margin Global climate policy is undergoing a rite of passage. What used to be a conversation about ambitious target setting now focuses increasingly on implementation and interventions to achieve these targets. This liminal transition from ambition to implementation is complex and presents deep ambiguities that are challenging for scientists to communicate and decision-makers to fathom. A critical question is whether we can believe that countries will deliver on the commitments they have made. By evaluating policy characteristics of countries’ net-zero targets, we can assign the targets credibility ratings, then estimate how greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and temperature are differentiated by our confidence in the targets. When we consider the credibility of current climate pledges, our assessment shows that the world remains far from delivering a safe climate future.