Synchronized Business Cycles in East Asia and Fluctuations in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate
Synchronized Business Cycles in East Asia and Fluctuations in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate
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东亚经济周期同步与日元/美元汇率波动
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.1009372
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发表时间：
2003
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
G. Schnabl
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Mckinnon;G. Schnabl
由于许多作者提出通过货币扩张和日元贬值来刺激陷入困境的日本经济，因此我们探讨了日元兑美元贬值对主要与美元挂钩的其他东亚经济体的影响。 1980年以来，日本邻国中国、香港、印度尼西亚、韩国、马来西亚、菲律宾、新加坡和泰国之间的经济一体化不断加强，经济周期（中国除外）高度同步。这些周期通过出口竞争力和外国直接投资流入的变化与日元/美元汇率的波动密切相关。我们表明，日元大幅贬值将对其他东亚经济体的收入产生负面影响，这对日本来说不是一个明智的政策选择。
Because many authors have proposed stimulating the ailing Japanese economy by monetary expansion and yen depreciation, we explore the repercussions of depreciating the yen against the dollar on the other East Asian economiesiXwhich largely peg to the dollar. Since 1980, economic integration among Japani¦s neighborsiXChina, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and ThailandiXhas intensified and (except for China) their business cycles have been highly synchronized. These cycles have been closely linked to fluctuations in the yen/dollar exchange rateiXthrough changes in their export competitiveness and inflows of foreign direct investment. We show that a major yen devaluation would have a negative impact on incomes in other East Asian economies and that it is not a sensible policy option for Japan.