Coupling hydrodynamic and individual‐based models to simulate long‐term larval supply to coastal nursery areas
Coupling hydrodynamic and individual‐based models to simulate long‐term larval supply to coastal nursery areas
复制标题
耦合水动力模型和基于个体的模型来模拟沿海育苗区的长期幼虫供应
DOI：
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
O. L. Pape
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Rochette;M. Huret;E. Rivot;O. L. Pape
对许多海洋鱼类来说，补充与幼体的存活和向育苗区的扩散密切相关。模拟幼虫漂移应有助于评估招募变异性对早期生活史的敏感性。一个基于个人的模型（IBM）耦合到一个水动力模型，用于模拟共同唯一的幼虫供应产卵区沿海和河口苗圃场在人口规模在东部海峡的14年时间序列，从1991年至2004年。IBM允许释放的每个粒子通过流体动力学模型中的水流运输，随温度增长，垂直迁移，给出阶段发育，并可能根据漂移持续时间死亡，代表从产卵到变态的生活史。尽管敏感的幼虫死亡率，该模型提供了现实的模拟队列下降和时空变化的幼虫供应。模式输出进行了分析，探讨水动力学和生活史的影响，在沿海苗圃定居的唯一幼虫的年际变化。不同的假设产卵空间分布进行了测试，比较均匀的鸡蛋分布观察和潜在的幼虫存活（PLS）的地图。敏感性分析表明，幼虫供应是更敏感的生活史沿着幼虫漂移比物候和产卵量，提供解释缺乏显着的股票招聘关系。然而，幼虫的供应是敏感的产卵分布。结果还表明，在东部海峡的假设不同的亚群之间的连接性非常低。
For many marine fish species, recruitment is strongly related to larval survival and dispersal to nursery areas. Simulating larval drift should help assessing the sensitivity of recruitment variability to early life history. An individual-based model (IBM) coupled to a hydrodynamic model was used to simulate common sole larval supply from spawning areas to coastal and estuarine nursery grounds at the population scale in the eastern Channel on a 14-yr time series, from 1991 to 2004. The IBM allowed each particle released to be transported by currents from the hydrodynamic model, to grow with temperature, to migrate vertically giving stage development, and possibly to die according to drift duration, representing the life history from spawning to metamorphosis. Despite sensitivity to the larval mortality rate, the model provided realistic simulations of cohort decline and spatio-temporal variability of larval supply. The model outputs were analysed to explore the effects of hydrodynamics and life history on the interannual variability of settled sole larvae in coastal nurseries. Different hypotheses of the spawning spatial distribution were also tested, comparing homogeneous egg distribution to observation and potential larval survival (PLS) maps. The sensitivity analyses demonstrated that larval supply is more sensitive to the life history along larval drift than to the phenology and volume of spawning, providing explanations for the lack of significant stock–recruitment relationship. Nevertheless, larval supply is sensitive to spawning distribution. Results also suggested a very low connectivity between supposed different sub-populations in the eastern Channel.