Modelling harvest of Greenland barnacle geese and its implications in mitigating human-wildlife conflict
Modelling harvest of Greenland barnacle geese and its implications in mitigating human-wildlife conflict
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模拟格陵兰藤壶雁的收获及其对缓解人类与野生动物冲突的影响
DOI：
10.1111/1365-2664.14369
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发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
5.7
通讯作者：
McIntosh A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
McIntosh A
近几十年来，北极种鹅的数量有所增加，它们向农业地区的扩张导致了与农民之间越来越多的冲突。致命控制和恐吓是缓解冲突的常见管理策略。管理通常侧重于地方/国家尺度，解决本地化控制对更广泛的人口的影响具有挑战性，特别是当人口在大面积和跨越国际borders.We构建一个综合人口模型（IPM），以评估所有拍摄收获（狩猎和减损拍摄）对格陵兰藤壶鹅，布兰塔leucopsis的累积影响。我们使用整个迁徙飞行路线监测计划的数据，并使用人口预测来评估未来潜在的拍摄策略对丰度的影响。我们的模型表明，飞行路线丰度自2012年达到峰值以来一直在下降，与收获率和低生产率的增加一致。艾莱岛的收获率增加最明显（从2011年到2017年从2%上升到7%），这表明这可能是飞行路线丰度下降的原因。艾莱岛的丰度自2000年开始减损拍摄以来一直在下降，而其他越冬地点的丰度则有所增加。这可能表明艾莱岛的数量下降可能是由于射击死亡率和艾莱岛的移民。如果未来飞行道水平的收获率增加，预计数量会进一步下降，如果收获扩展到整个冬季范围，可能会更加明显。相反，如果收获率下降，预计丰度会增加。因此，预测可以用来分配飞行路线水平的收获率，以减轻当地的压力，而不妨碍飞行路线水平的管理目标。综合和应用我们的研究结果表明，当地收获对全球丰度的影响，强调国际协调的监测和管理战略的重要性迁徙物种。IPM为适应提供了一个框架，以便在获得更多数据时纳入这些数据，并对未来的收获情景进行比较，为整个飞行路线的管理战略提供信息。
Arctic‐breeding goose populations have increased in recent decades and their expansion into agricultural areas has caused increasing conflict with farmers due to the damage they cause. Lethal control and scaring are common management strategies of conflict mitigation. Management typically focuses on local/national scales, making addressing the impact of localised control on the wider population challenging, particularly when populations move over large areas and cross international borders.We construct an integrated population model (IPM) to assess the cumulative impact of all shooting harvest (hunting and derogation shooting) on the Greenland barnacle goose,Branta leucopsis. We use data from monitoring schemes throughout the migratory flyway and use population projections to evaluate the impact of potential future shooting strategies on abundance.Our model suggests flyway abundance has declined since its 2012 peak, consistent with an increase in harvest rate and low productivity. Harvest rate increase was most pronounced on Islay (rising from 2% to 7% from 2011 to 2017), suggesting this was a probable cause of flyway abundance decline.Islay abundance has declined since derogation shooting began in 2000, while abundance at other wintering sites has increased. This may indicate that declines in Islay abundance may be due to both shooting mortality and emigration from Islay.Should future flyway‐level harvest rates increase, further declines in abundance could be expected, and are likely to be more pronounced if harvests are extended to the entire winter range. Conversely, should harvest rates decline, an increase in abundance is predicted. Projections can therefore be used to allocate flyway‐level harvest rates to alleviate local pressure without hindering flyway‐level management objectives.Synthesis and applications.Our findings demonstrate the impact of local harvests on global abundance, emphasising the importance of internationally coordinated monitoring and management strategies of migratory species. IPMs provide a framework for adaptation to incorporate additional data when they become available and enable comparisons of future harvest scenarios to inform management strategies throughout the flyway.