Increased Flood Exposure Due to Climate Change and Population Growth in the United States
Increased Flood Exposure Due to Climate Change and Population Growth in the United States
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DOI：
10.1029/2020ef001778
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发表时间：
2020-11
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Daniel L. Swain;O. Wing;Paul D. Bates;J. Done;Kris A. Johnson;D. Cameron
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文献类型：
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作者：
Daniel L. Swain;O. Wing;Paul D. Bates;J. Done;Kris A. Johnson;D. Cameron
由于人为气候变化，全球极端降水量正在增加。然而，对洪水发生和随后的人口暴露的影响仍然存在不确定性。在这里，我们量化的人口暴露于洪水灾害的变化，在整个毗连的美国。我们结合了来自气候模型大型集合和高分辨率水动力洪水模型的联合收割机模拟，使我们能够直接评估各种极端降水量级和累积时间尺度的变化。我们报告了在高变暖情景下，100年降水事件的平均增加约20%（幅度）和>200%（频率），人口暴露增加约30-127%。我们进一步发现，最强烈的降水事件的非线性增加，这表明加速社会影响，从历史上罕见的或前所未有的降水事件在21世纪。
Precipitation extremes are increasing globally due to anthropogenic climate change. However, there remains uncertainty regarding impacts upon flood occurrence and subsequent population exposure. Here, we quantify changes in population exposure to flood hazard across the contiguous United States. We combine simulations from a climate model large ensemble and a high‐resolution hydrodynamic flood model—allowing us to directly assess changes across a wide range of extreme precipitation magnitudes and accumulation timescales. We report a mean increase in the 100‐year precipitation event of ~20% (magnitude) and >200% (frequency) in a high warming scenario, yielding a ~30–127% increase in population exposure. We further find a nonlinear increase for the most intense precipitation events—suggesting accelerating societal impacts from historically rare or unprecedented precipitation events in the 21st century.