Business Cycles, Investment Shocks, and the "Barro-King" Curse
Business Cycles, Investment Shocks, and the "Barro-King" Curse
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商业周期、投资冲击和“巴罗王”诅咒
DOI：
10.3386/w22941
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Eric R. Sims
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
G. Ascari;L. Phaneuf;Eric R. Sims
最近的经验证据表明，投资冲击是商业周期波动背后的关键驱动力。然而，现有的强调这些冲击的新凯恩斯主义模型实际上暗示，消费增长和投资增长之间存在无条件负相关，消费增长和产出增长之间存在弱的无条件正相关，消费增长与消费增长之间存在反常的交叉关联。这些反常现象的出现，是因为短期的收缩效应对消费产生了积极的投资冲击。这种反事实的联动是典型的“巴罗金诅咒”(Barro And King 1984)，即具有真正经济周期核心的模型必须依靠技术冲击来解释所观察到的产出、消费、投资和工作时间之间的联动。我们证明，在一个原本标准的中等规模新凯恩斯主义模型的基础上，加入两个现实的因素--即迂回生产和实际人均产出增长--可以打破巴罗金诅咒，更准确地解释更普遍的无条件商业周期波动。这两个特征大大放大了中性技术和投资冲击对总波动的影响，并在积极投资冲击的影响下产生了消费上升。
Recent empirical evidence identfies investment shocks as key driving forces behind business cycle fluctuations. However, existing New Keynesian models emphasizing these shocks counterfactually imply a negative unconditional correlation between consumption growth and investment growth, a weak positive unconditional correlation between consumption growth and output growth and anomalous profiles of cross-correlations involving consumption growth. These anomalies arise because of a short-run contractionary eff ect a positive investment shock on consumption. Such counterfactual co-movements are typical of the "Barro-King curse" (Barro and King 1984), wherein models with a real business cycle core must rely on technology shocks to account for the observed co-movement among output, consumption, investment, and hours. We show that two realistic additions to an otherwise standard medium scale New Keynesian model - namely, roundabout production and real per capita output growth stemming from trend growth in neutral and investment-specific technologies - can break the Barro-King curse and provide a more accurate account of unconditional business cycle comovements more generally. These two features substantially magnify the eff ects of neutral technology and investment shocks on aggregate fluctuations and generate a rise of consumption on impact of a positive investment shock.
影响因子：
10.7
作者：
Justiniano, Alejandro;Primiceri, Giorgio E.
通讯作者：
Primiceri, Giorgio E.