Opium in Afghanistan: Prospects for the Success of Source Country Drug Control Policies
Opium in Afghanistan: Prospects for the Success of Source Country Drug Control Policies
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阿富汗的鸦片：来源国毒品管制政策的成功前景
DOI：
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发表时间：
2008
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Jeffrey Clemens
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jeffrey Clemens
最近的估计表明，2007年，阿富汗的鸦片产量约占世界总量的93%。本文提出了一个框架，以评估来源国药物管制政策减少这一产量的潜力。它包含了评估政策向上转移鸦片供应的潜力的第一步，以及一系列供需弹性。这些估计表明，仅通过替代发展计划就可以预期产量的微乎其微的减少(除一种规格外，所有规格的减产幅度都不到6.5%)。他们还表明，要实现适度的减产(各种规格的减产幅度从3.0%到19.4%不等)，就需要大幅增加作物根除。结果还表明，在其他条件不变的情况下，停止根除作物只会导致鸦片类药物产量的小幅增长(估计在1.6%到9.6%之间)。
Recent estimates suggest that in 2007, Afghan opiate production accounted for about 93 percent of the world’s total. This article presents a framework for estimating the potential for source country drug control policies to reduce this production. It contains a first pass at estimating the potential for policy to shift the supply of opium upward, as well as a range of supply and demand elasticities. The estimates suggest that meager reductions in production can be expected through alternative development programs alone (reductions are less than 6.5 percent in all but one of the specifications presented). They also suggest that substantial increases in crop eradication would be needed to achieve even moderate reductions in production (reductions range from 3.0 percent to 19.4 percent for various specifications). The results also imply that, all else being equal, the cessation of crop eradication would result in only modest increases in opiate production (with estimates ranging from 1.6 percent to 9.6 percent).