On the relation between point-wise and multiple-location probabilistic seismic hazard assessments
On the relation between point-wise and multiple-location probabilistic seismic hazard assessments
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/s10518-014-9661-6
复制
发表时间：
2015-05-01
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Wenzel, Friedemann
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Sokolov, Vladimir;Wenzel, Friedemann
经典的概率地震危险性分析（PSHA）的结果不包含特定地震期间不同地点同时发生的地面运动的信息。分布式关键结构的地震风险分析需要估计可能在多个地点同时发生的地震震动的水平：生命线系统的脆弱元件是否可能同时受到足够强度的震动的影响，使其失效，以及任何一个关键点的震动是否足以导致整个系统的失效。虽然生命线性能的分析需要多个位置的估计，网络或关键设施的稀疏位置的元素的基础上逐点PSHA设计。在本文中，我们研究了多位置PSHA的具体功能，与经典的逐点PSHA相比，使用Monte Carlo模拟。我们分析的水平地面运动（PGA），将超过在任何网站内的一个特定的区域或在几个网站同时与参考年概率。分析已进行的地区西部和西南部的德国，北方和台湾东部，代表不同的地震活动水平（低，中，高，分别）。分析并量化了多点估计与逐点估计之间的关系。研究结果可用于决定在多位置PSHA的特殊情况下是否可以使用逐点PSHA程序，即用于评估多个场地之间的最大地面运动水平，或用于在考虑同时发生的地震时估计合理的较低安全水平。
The results of classical probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) contain no information about simultaneous ground motions at different sites during a particular earthquake. Seismic risk analysis for distributed critical structures requires estimates of the level of earthquake shaking that are likely to occur concurrently at multiple locations: whether the vulnerable elements of a lifeline system are likely to be simultaneously affected by shaking of sufficient strength to disable them and whether the shaking at any one of critical points may be sufficient to cause failure of the whole system. While the analysis of lifeline performance requires multiple-location estimations, the sparsely located elements of a network or critical facilities are designed on the basis of point-wise PSHA. In this paperwe study specific features of multiple-location PSHA, as compared with the classical point-wise PSHA, using Monte Carlo simulations. We analyze the level of ground motion (PGA) that will be exceeded at any site inside a particular area or at several sites simultaneously with reference annual probability. The analysis has been performed for regions of Western and South-Western Germany, Northern and Eastern Taiwan, which represent different levels of seismicity (low, moderate and high, respectively). The relationship between the multiple-location and point-wise estimations are analyzed and quantified. Results of the study may be used to decide whether it may be possible to utilize the procedure of point-wise PSHA in particular cases of multiple-location PSHA, i.e. for assessment of maximum level of ground motion among several sites, or for estimation a reasonable lower safety level when considering simultaneous exceedances.