Comparison of aircraft observations with ensemble forecast model results in terms of the microphysical characteristics of stratiform precipitation
Comparison of aircraft observations with ensemble forecast model results in terms of the microphysical characteristics of stratiform precipitation
复制标题
层状降水微物理特征飞机观测与集合预报模型结果对比
DOI：
10.1080/16742834.2020.1780902
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发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
2.3
通讯作者：
Zhu Jiangshan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fu Yuan;Lei Hengchi;Yang Jiefan;Guo Jiaxu;Zhu Jiangshan
摘要 云中粒子数浓度和液体/冰水含量的预测对于大气科学的许多方面都具有重要意义。然而，考虑到初始条件和边界条件的不确定性以及微物理方案的不完善，云的这些微物理特性的准确预测仍然是一个很大的挑战。集合方法可能是减少预测不确定性的可行方法。本文通过将10元集合预报模型的结果与飞机观测数据进行比较，研究了大范围层状云降水过程。通过集合平均值，与控制件相比，可以改进液态水含量和冰水含量等体参数的预测，但颗粒数浓度仍比观测值低一到两个数量级。雨滴尺寸光谱的相互比较揭示了直径小于 1000 μm 的颗粒的观测和预测之间的巨大差异。图解摘要
ABSTRACT The prediction of the particle number concentration and liquid/ice water content of cloud is significant for many aspects of atmospheric science. However, given the uncertainties in the initial and boundary conditions and imperfections of microphysical schemes, the accurate prediction of these microphysical properties of cloud is still a big challenge. The ensemble approach may be a viable way to reduce forecast uncertainties. In this paper, a large-scale stratiform cloud precipitation process is studied by comparing results of a 10-member ensemble forecast model with aircraft observation data. By means of the ensemble average, the prediction of bulk parameters such as liquid water content and ice water content can be improved in comparison with the control member, but the particle number concentrations are still one to two orders of magnitude less than those from observations. Intercomparison of raindrop size spectra reveals a big distinction between observations and predictions for particles with a diameter less than 1000 μm. Graphical Abstract