Statistical models of the effects of tree trimming on power system outages
Statistical models of the effects of tree trimming on power system outages
复制标题
树木修剪对电力系统停电影响的统计模型
DOI：
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复制
发表时间：
2006
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Haibin Liu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Seth D. Guikema;Rachel A. Davidson;Haibin Liu
本文开发了统计模型，用于估计在正常（非风暴）运行条件下树木修剪对电力系统停电的影响。这些模型是基于美国东南部杜克电力公司的大量数据，所用模型为负二项广义线性模型和泊松广义线性混合模型（GLMM）。结果表明：1）增加树修剪频率确实会导致配电系统上的停电次数减少; 2）可以区分和测量树修剪对不同电路的影响;以及3）Poisson GLMM在这种情况下提供了对数据的良好拟合。特别是，模型的结果表明，对于杜克电力系统，人们会预期，平均0.9减少停电每电路在43个月的数据记录期间，如果树木修剪周期之间的时间减少了1年，在整个系统。这些模型可以应用于其他电力系统，其结果应该是有用的电源管理人员在设置树修剪频率，并在集中在最频繁的修剪工作的电路修剪将有最大的好处。
This paper develops statistical models for estimating the impacts of tree trimming on electric power system outages under normal (nonstorm) operating conditions. The models are based on an extensive data set from Duke Power, a company in the southeastern U.S., and the models used are a negative binomial generalized linear model and a Poisson generalized linear mixed model (GLMM). The results show that: 1) increasing tree trimming frequency does lead to a decrease in the number of outages on the electric power distribution system; 2) the effects of tree trimming on different circuits can be differentiated and measured; and 3) the Poisson GLMM provides a good fit to the data in this situation. In particular, the results of the model show that for the Duke Power system, one would have expected, on average, 0.9 fewer outages per circuit over the 43-month data recording period if the time between tree trimming cycles was decreased by 1 yr across the whole system. These models could be applied to other power systems, and the results should be useful for power managers in setting tree trimming frequencies and in focusing on the most frequent trimming efforts on those circuits for which trimming will have the greatest benefit.