Detecting climate signals in precipitation extremes from TRMM (1998–2013)—Increasing contrast between wet and dry extremes during the “global warming hiatus”
Detecting climate signals in precipitation extremes from TRMM (1998–2013)—Increasing contrast between wet and dry extremes during the “global warming hiatus”
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DOI：
10.1002/2015gl067371
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发表时间：
2016-02
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Huey-Tzu Wu;W. Lau
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Huey-Tzu Wu;W. Lau
我们利用热带降雨量测量任务 (TRMM) 数据（1998-2013 年）研究每日极端降水量的变化，这与“全球变暖中断”相吻合。结果显示，在此期间，当地降水事件（LPE）的概率分布函数发生了变化，这与之前的全球变暖研究一致，表明极端潮湿和干燥之间的对比日益增强，全球LPE更加强烈，LPE不太温和，以及干燥（无雨）天数增多。对陆地和海洋的分析分别揭示了陆地上更复杂和微妙的变化，其特点是雨季期间北半球温带地区极端LPE频率呈强烈的正趋势（每十年+12.0%，99%置信水平（c.l.）），但在旱季期间全球呈负趋势（每十年-6.6%，95% c.l.）。旱季期间还发现了陆地上显着的全球干旱趋势（每十年 3.2%，99% c.l.）。干旱事件明显增加的地区包括美国西部和中部、东北亚和南欧/地中海。
We investigate changes in daily precipitation extremes using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data (1998–2013), which coincides with the “global warming hiatus.” Results show a change in probability distribution functions of local precipitation events (LPEs) during this period consistent with previous global warming studies, indicating increasing contrast between wet and dry extremes, with more intense LPE, less moderate LPE, and more dry (no rain) days globally. Analyses for land and ocean separately reveal more complex and nuanced changes over land, characterized by a strong positive trend (+12.0% per decade, 99% confidence level (c.l.)) in frequency of extreme LPEs over the Northern Hemisphere extratropics during the wet season but a negative global trend (−6.6% per decade, 95% c.l.) during the dry season. A significant global drying trend (3.2% per decade, 99% c.l.) over land is also found during the dry season. Regions of pronounced increased dry events include western and central U.S., northeastern Asia, and Southern Europe/Mediterranean.