Three decades of multi-dimensional change in global leaf phenology
Three decades of multi-dimensional change in global leaf phenology
复制标题
DOI：
10.1038/nclimate2533
复制
发表时间：
2015-04-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Higgins, Steven I.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Buitenwerf, Robert;Rose, Laura;Higgins, Steven I.
植被活动的物候变化可能会通过改变地表和大气之间的能量交换来加速或减缓气候变化的速度（1，2），并可能威胁到具有同步生命周期的物种（3-5）。目前对植被活动长期变化的了解是区域性的（6-8），或限于高度综合的变化措施，如净初级生产力（9-13），这掩盖了与地球系统动态有关的细节。这些细节可以通过测量植被活动的物候变化来揭示。在这里，我们进行全面的全球评估植被物候的变化。我们发现，在1981年至2012年期间，全球54%的陆地表面上植被活动的物候发生了严重变化（在一个或多个物候变化维度上超过2个标准差）。我们的分析证实了先前在北方和北方温带地区检测到的变化（6-8）。这些北方物候变化对陆地-地表-气候反馈（1）、生态系统（4）和物种（3）的不利后果是众所周知的。我们的研究揭示了同样严重的物候变化在南半球，在那里的能源预算的后果和物候不匹配的可能性是未知的。我们的分析提供了一个敏感和直接的生态系统功能的测量，使其既用于监测变化和测试变化的早期预警信号的可靠性（14）。
Changes in the phenology of vegetation activity may accelerate or dampen rates of climate change by altering energy exchanges between the land surface and the atmosphere(1,2) and can threaten species with synchronized life cycles(3-5). Current knowledge of long-term changes in vegetation activity is regional(6-8), or restricted to highly integrated measures of change such as net primary productivity(9-13), which mask details that are relevant for Earth system dynamics. Such details can be revealed by measuring changes in the phenology of vegetation activity. Here we undertake a comprehensive global assessment of changes in vegetation phenology. We show that the phenology of vegetation activity changed severely (by more than 2 standard deviations in one or more dimensions of phenological change) on 54% of the global land surface between 1981 and 2012. Our analysis confirms previously detected changes in the boreal and northern temperate regions(6-8). The adverse consequences of these northern phenological shifts for land-surface-climate feedbacks(1), ecosystems(4) and species(3) are well known. Our study reveals equally severe phenological changes in the southern hemisphere, where consequences for the energy budget and the likelihood of phenological mismatches are unknown. Our analysis provides a sensitive and direct measurement of ecosystem functioning, making it useful both for monitoring change and for testing the reliability of early warning signals of change(14).