Modelled glacier response to centennial temperature and precipitation trends on the Antarctic Peninsula
Modelled glacier response to centennial temperature and precipitation trends on the Antarctic Peninsula
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DOI：
10.1038/nclimate2369
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发表时间：
2014-11-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Smellie, John L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Davies, Bethan J.;Golledge, Nicholas R.;Smellie, John L.
南极北方半岛目前正在经历快速的大气变暖（1）。20世纪冰川表面融化的增加（2，3）导致了冰架崩塌和冰川的普遍加速（4）、变薄和衰退（5）。因此，南极冰盖周边的冰川目前对海平面上升有很大的贡献（6，7），但未来的融化可能会被降水量增加所抵消（8）。在这里，我们评估冰川气候关系在过去和未来，使用冰芯和地质数据和冰川和气候数值模型模拟。以南极半岛东北部詹姆斯罗斯岛上的IJR 45冰川为例，模拟实验表明，该冰川对温度变化最为敏感，而对降水变化则不敏感。我们确定它最近的扩张发生在全新世晚期的“小冰期”，而不是之前提出的温暖的全新世中期。使用政府间气候变化专门委员会的一系列未来气候情景进行的模拟表明，未来降水量的增加不太可能抵消大气变暖引起的南极半岛周边冰川融化。
The northern Antarctic Peninsula is currently undergoing rapid atmospheric warming(1). Increased glacier-surface melt during the twentieth century(2,3) has contributed to ice-shelf collapse and the widespread acceleration(4), thinning and recession(5) of glaciers. Therefore, glaciers peripheral to the Antarctic Ice Sheet currently make a large contribution to eustatic sea-level rise(6,7), but future melting may be offset by increased precipitation(8). Here we assess glacier-climate relationships both during the past and into the future, using ice-core and geological data and glacier and climate numerical model simulations. Focusing on Glacier IJR45 on James Ross Island, northeast Antarctic Peninsula, our modelling experiments show that this representative glacier is most sensitive to temperature change, not precipitation change. We determine that its most recent expansion occurred during the late Holocene 'Little Ice Age' and not during the warmer mid-Holocene, as previously proposed(9). Simulations using a range of future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate scenarios indicate that future increases in precipitation are unlikely to offset atmospheric-warming-induced melt of peripheral Antarctic Peninsula glaciers.